2023 NFL Week 9 Writeup

Miami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs

KC -1.5 (-120) | O/U 50 (-110)

Germany 9:30 AM ET

Dolphins News & Notes

Miami rolled to a comfortable 31-17 win at home against the New England Patriots on Sunday as 7.5-point favorites. Tua Tagovailoa went 30-for-35 with 324 passing yards, three touchdown passes and one interception in the win and Tyreek Hill caught eight passes for 112 yards and a touchdown. Hill has recorded 61 catches, 1,014 receiving yards and eight touchdown receptions through his first eight games in 2023.

The Dolphins’ 6-2 SU and ATS start to the season has been fueled by their incredible production on offense. Miami’s 453 total yards and 33.9 points per game this year both lead the NFL by wide margins. The team is 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in its last eight games played in November.

If there was ever a time for the Jets to discover a scoring touch, it would be this weekend against the offensively challenged Giants. While Zach Wilson has struggled as expected under center, he has still produced a respectable eight scoring passes over his past eight appearances at MetLife Stadium, and perhaps more importantly, he has tossed just one pick in his past four outings. Breece Hall has generated scoring runs in each of the past two games, and showed his stuff as a receiver in the squad’s Week 6 win over Philadelphia, making five catches for 54 yards. However, veteran rusher Dalvin Cook has yet to meet expectations since arriving in New York, compiling just 155 total yards in six games, including his 14-yeard performance two weeks ago against the Eagles.

During the Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes era in Kansas City, trying to get into a shoot-out against the Chiefs would normally be a recipe for disaster. But this season, given how inconsistent the Chiefs have been on offense and how elite the Dolphins have been, this actually figures to be Miami’s best shot at an upset win.

Miami has the edge on offense in this matchup, especially with the level that Tyreek Hill is playing at. The Dolphins are 5-0 SU and ATS in the five games that Hill has compiled 100 receiving yards or more in. If the star receiver has another big day against his former team, Miami could beat the Chiefs at their own game in Germany.

• Miami are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games.
• The total has gone OVER in 6 of Miami’s last 9 games.
• Miami are 6-2 SU in their last 8 games.
• Miami are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games against Kansas City.

Chiefs News & Notes

• Kansas City are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City’s last 5 games.
• Kansas City are 14-2 SU in their last 16 games.
• Kansas City are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games at home.

Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles

PHI -3 (-115) | O/U 47 (-105)

4:00 PM

Cowboys News & Notes

Currently in sole possession of second place in the NFC East standings, the Cowboys have built their recent success on a dominating 11-game SU win streak on home turf, during which they have averaged a lofty 34.4 points per game.

However, things have not gone so well during their current 5-7 run on the road, during which they have averaged just 23.4 points and scored 20 or fewer points in five of their past seven.

Dallas eked out a narrow 20-17 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers in their most recent road game three weeks ago, but have musted just 15.3 points per game in their past three road dates. With Prescott failing to eclipse 200 passing yards in three of his past five road appearances, his receiving corps has suffered.

CeeDee Lamb has failed to pull in a scoring catch in four road games this season despite averaging 74 receiving yards per game, and while Prescott has found Brandin Cooks in the end zone in each of the past two games, Cooks has averaged just 20.5 receiving yards on the road. That adds to the pressure on both the Cowboys defense and top rusher Tony Pollard, who hasn’t scored since Week 1.

• Dallas are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games.
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas’ last 6 games.
• Dallas are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games.
• Dallas are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against Philadelphia.

Eagles News & Notes

The Eagles return home after struggling to contain a surprising Commanders attack in last week’s win in Washington. The Eagles found themselves playing catch-up for most of Sunday’s contest after spotting the Commanders an early 14-3 lead but were able to seal the victory after capitalizing on Washington twice turning over the ball on downs, along with an interception, which they converted into three fourth-quarter touchdowns.

Jalen Hurts turned in his best performance of the season so far while tossing for 319 yards and four scores, and has now powered the Eagles to 34.5 points per game in the past two weeks, and 31 or more points four times this season,

Buffalo Bills @ Cincinnati Bengals

CIN -2.5 (-115) | O/U 50.5 (-110)

8:20 PM

Bills News & Notes

Buffalo will return to the site of last year’s Week 17 game at Cincinnati that was cancelled following Damar Hamlin’s heart attack on the field. The Bills were never the same team after that happened and ended up losing to the Bengals 27-10 in a divisional playoff matchup at home 20 days later. This is a new year and a new team even though most of the same players will be back for the rematch.

Hamlin will not likely be one of them as he has made it on the field for only two games so far this season. Regardless, Buffalo’s defense has not been the same since losing a trio of starters in linebacker Matt Milano, defensive tackle DaQuan Jones and cornerback Tre’Davious White due to injuries.

While Burrow thrived in the last meeting, Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen struggled. Allen completed 25-of-42 passes for 264 yards versus Cincinnati with no touchdowns and one interception, although he did have eight carries for 26 yards on the ground and scored a rushing touchdown.

But he had home-field advantage in that matchup as well and will need to perform much better in this spot if the Bills are going to win consecutive games for the first time since they started 3-0. Keep in mind, they are 0-4 ATS in splitting their last four games SU, so even in their two wins during that stretch they did not play particularly well. This revenge spot should motivate them and bring out the best in them.

• Buffalo are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Buffalo’s last 9 games.
• Buffalo are 13-4 SU in their last 17 games.
• Buffalo are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against Cincinnati.

Bengals News & Notes

Cincinnati appears to be back as a legitimate Super Bowl contender following a rough start that saw the team lose its first two games and three of the first four. Much of the early struggles were attributed to quarterback Joe Burrow’s recovery from a calf injury, but he looks as good as ever now with the extra time off he got during the bye.

If Cincinnati is truly back to being an elite team, this is yet another opportunity to prove it. The Bengals took advantage of a beat-up 49ers team playing on short rest, and now they will take on a rested Bills squad that will be fired up to beat them.

Burrow is the true difference maker in this equation and has the moxie that Allen seems to lack despite being equally talented. Cincinnati has won nine of its last 10 home games while Buffalo has gone 0-4 ATS in its past four prime-time appearances. The Bills tend to wilt under the pressure when the spotlight is on them, which could be another key to victory here.

• The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cincinnati’s last 9 games.
• Cincinnati are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati’s last 5 games against Buffalo.
• Cincinnati are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games at home.