Week 10
November 12, 2023
NFL 2023 Season:
Current Record: 61-62-1 -$8,980
NFL Playoffs 2022: 144-91-4 $11,835
NFL Reg-Season & Playoffs 2022: 144-91-4 $11,835
CFB Reg-Season & Playoffs: 101-73-2 +$18,888
Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob)
Co Write-Up via @JumpmanJordan – Oddsmaker.com & FanDuel Sportsbooks
Photo Credit: AP Photo/Rhona Wise
San Francisco 49ers @ Jacksonville Jaguars
SF -3 (-118) | O/U 44.5 (-115)
1:00 PM
49ers News & Notes
The 49ers entered their bye week last weekend on an 0-3 SU and ATS losing streak. San Francisco’s offense scored exactly 17 points in all three of those losses after averaging 33.4 points per game during the team’s 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS start. Brock Purdy has thrown five interceptions in his last three games since opening the season with none in his first five starts.
San Francisco is hoping that a trade for defensive end Chase Young and the bye week are enough to get things back on track this weekend. The 49ers were 15-0 SU and 12-3 ATS in their previous 15 regular season games prior to their recent three-game losing streak.
San Francisco looked like a clear Super Bowl contender on both sides of the ball through the first five weeks of the 2023 season, averaging 33.4 points per game on offense while holding opponents to only 13.6 points per game. But over their last three games, the 49ers have averaged 17 points per game and allowed 24 points per game.
How this game goes may come down to which version of Brock Purdy and the 49ers show up. If Purdy can get back to making good decisions on offense and the defense can get back to dominating up front, San Francisco should be able to bounce back with a win here. More of what we saw before the bye, however, would likely produce similar results.
- San Francisco are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games.
- San Francisco are 16-4 SU in their last 20 games.
- San Francisco are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games against Jacksonville.
- San Francisco are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games against Jacksonville.
Jaguars News & Notes
Jacksonville got a strong performance out of its defense in a 20-10 road win over the Pittsburgh Steelers as 2.5-point favorites in their final game before last weekend’s bye week. The Jaguars entered their bye with a 5-0 SU and ATS win streak, winning those five games by an average margin of victory of 11.2 points per game.
Over their last nine home games, the Jaguars are 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS with a 4-1 SU and ATS record as a home underdog. Jacksonville is 1-4 SU and 2-2-1 ATS in its last five games coming off of a bye.
Trevor Lawrence had a 10-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio and an 84.8 passer rating through his first eight games last season before recording a 15-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 104.6 passer rating over the team’s last nine games. Lawrence has been good but not great so far in 2023 with 1,935 passing yards, nine touchdowns and four interceptions through eight starts.
Will Lawrence find another second-half surge this season after Jacksonville’s bye week? The 49ers rank fifth in the NFL in run defense allowing only 86.1 rushing yards per game. If San Francisco brings its best effort on Sunday, Lawrence may need to find an extra gear to lead the Jaguars to an upset win at home.
- Jacksonville are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games.
- Jacksonville are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville’s last 6 games against San Francisco.
- Jacksonville are 7-2 SU in their last 9 games at home.
Detroit Lions @ Los Angeles Chargers
DET -3 (-105) | O/U 48.5 (-110)
4:05 PM
Lions News & Notes
The Lions defeated the Las Vegas Raiders 26-14 as 7-point home favorites on Monday Night Football prior to their bye in Week 9. Rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs had a breakout game in the win, rushing for 152 yards and a touchdown on 26 carries and catching five passes for 37 yards. Jared Goff went 26-for-37 with 272 passing yards, one touchdown and one interception.
Detroit improved to 14-4 SU and 15-3 ATS over its last 18 games with the win. With a 6-2 SU and ATS record coming out of their bye, the Lions look poised to make the playoffs for the first time since 2016 this season.
Detroit has had one of the NFL’s most balanced offenses in the league this season. The Lions rank sixth in the NFL in passing with 259.3 passing yards per game and sixth in rushing with 131.4 rushing yards per game. Facing a Chargers defense that ranks dead last in the NFL in passing defense allowing 286 passing yards per game, Jared Goff could be in for a big day this Sunday.
David Montgomery is also set to return to action this weekend, creating a nice 1-2 punch in the backfield along with Jahmyr Gibbs. Scoring shouldn’t be too big of an issue, so earning this road win will likely just come down to how well the Lions play on defense.
- Detroit are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.
- Detroit are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games.
- Detroit are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games against LA Chargers.
- Detroit are 2-7 SU in their last 9 games against LA Chargers.
Chargers News & Notes
Los Angeles leaned on its defense in an easy 27-6 road win over the New York Jets as 3-point road favorites last Monday night. Justin Herbert went 16-for-30 with 136 passing yards and Austin Ekeler compiled 47 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns on a night that the offense didn’t need to do much to win. The Chargers defense held the Jets to only 191 total yards and recorded eight sacks and three turnovers.
Since opening the season with a 2-4 SU and ATS record, the Chargers have gone 2-0 SU and ATS in their last two games. Los Angeles is 5-0 SU in its last five home games against the Lions and 3-0 ATS in its last three home games against them.
The Chargers have been slightly below average in the NFL on defense this season ranking 20th in total defense allowing 346.1 total yards per game and 22nd in scoring defense giving up 22.6 points per game. Their strong defensive efforts in back-to-back games against the Chicago Bears and the Jets can be contributed in large part to the offensive woes of those two teams.
Keeping the Lions high-powered offense in check is going to be a much more difficult task. To pick up an upset win at home, Los Angeles is likely going to need strong performances from Justin Herbert and Austin Ekeler on offense to win in a high-scoring game.
- LA Chargers are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Chargers’ last 6 games.
- LA Chargers are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Chargers’ last 6 games against Detroit.
New York Jets @ Las Vegas Raiders
NYJ -1 (-110) | O/U 36 (-110)
8:20 PM
Jets News & Notes
New York failed to get much going on offense in a 27-6 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers on Monday Night Football as 3-point home underdogs. Zach Wilson went 33-for-49 with 263 passing yards and Breece Hall had 16 carries for 50 rushing yards as the team failed to record a touchdown. The loss snapped a 3-0 SU and 2-0-1 ATS win streak.
Wilson now has 1,600 passing yards, five touchdown passes and five interceptions through eight starts this season. The Jets are 2-7 SU and 5-4 ATS in their last nine games against AFC West opponents.
The Jets have one of the NFL’s best defenses this season ranking ninth in total defense allowing 312 total yards per game and eighth in scoring defense allowing 19.5 points per game. That defense has kept New York afloat with a .500 record this season despite a dismal offense that ranks 31st in the NFL this season averaging 272.9 total yards per game.
Fortunately for the Jets, they face a Raiders offense this week that is only slightly better, ranking 30th in the NFL with 275.6 total yards per game in 2023. In what should be a low-scoring defensive battle, New York can win by coming up with more big plays on defense.
- The total has gone UNDER in 10 of NY Jets’ last 13 games.
- NY Jets are 4-10 SU in their last 14 games.
- NY Jets are 2-6 SU in their last 8 games on the road.
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Jets’ last 6 games when playing on the road against Las Vegas.
Raiders News & Notes
The Raiders had their best game of the season on both offense and defense in a 30-6 blowout win as 1.5-point home favorites against the New York Giants last Sunday. Rookie quarterback Aiden O’Connell went 16-for-25 with 209 passing yards and Josh Jacobs recorded 98 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 26 carries.
Las Vegas looked rejuvenated across the board under interim head coach Antonio Pierce, who took over last week after the firing of Josh McDaniels. The Raiders are 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games at home including a current 3-0 SU and ATS run in their last three home games.
Las Vegas was averaging 15.8 points per game and had scored more than 18 points in a game only once this season prior to the team’s 30-point effort last Sunday against the Giants. Aiden O’Connell didn’t throw a touchdown pass in the team’s win, but he looked good under center and moved the ball well on multiple scoring drives.
O’Connell will get a much tougher test this Sunday facing the Jets and their aggressive defense. If the rookie is able to avoid making mistakes and turning the ball over, the Raiders could ride the wave of momentum from last week’s win into another strong effort this Sunday night at home.
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Las Vegas’ last 7 games.
- Las Vegas are 4-8 SU in their last 12 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of Las Vegas’ last 8 games against NY Jets.
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Las Vegas’ last 5 games at home.
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