2023 NFL Week 4 Writeup

Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns

CLE -2.5 (-105) | O/U 39 (-110)

1:00 PM

Ravens News & Notes

The Ravens were unable to hold on to a late lead in their 22-19 overtime loss to the Indianapolis Colts last Sunday as 7.5-point favorites at home. Baltimore had multiple chances to put the game away on both sides of the ball in regulation and overtime but were unable to get the job done, picking up their first loss of the season and snapping a 4-0 ATS win streak dating back to last year.

Lamar Jackson went 22-for-31 with 202 passing yards and rushed for 101 yards and two touchdowns on 14 rushing attempts. The Ravens are dealing with multiple injuries on offense as wideout Odell Beckham Jr. (ankle) and running backs Gus Edwards (concussion) and Justice Hill (toe) are all listed as questionable for Sunday’s game.

Baltimore’s scoring offense is in the middle of the pack this season averaging 23.7 points per game thanks to an elite rushing attack that ranks fifth in the NFL with 158 rushing yards per game. That rushing attack is about to get a very tough test in Cleveland facing a Browns rushing defense that ranks second best in the NFL allowing only 52 rushing yards per game.

To win this one on the road, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens will likely need to get their passing game going. Baltimore is averaging only 190 passing yards per game this season, and it’s probably going to take more than that to secure an upset win in Cleveland.

• Baltimore are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Baltimore’s last 18 games.
• Baltimore are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games.
• Baltimore are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games against Cleveland.

Browns News & Notes

The Browns dominated on defense to cruise to a 27-3 win at home over the Tennessee Titans as 3.5-point favorites on Sunday. Deshaun Watson led the way on offense going 27-for-33 with 289 passing yards and two passing touchdowns. Amari Cooper led the receiving corps with seven catches for 116 yards and a touchdown in the win.

Cleveland’s running game clearly missed Nick Chubb as the Browns compiled only 78 rushing yards on 31 attempts spread out across seven different ball carriers. Including their final seven games of the 2022 season, the Browns are now 6-4 SU and ATS over their last 10 games.

With Nick Chubb lost for the season due to a torn MCL injury, this is officially Deshaun Watson’s offense in Cleveland. Watson rose to the challenge last week with a great game against the Titans. Now he will try to continue that success on Sunday facing a Ravens passing defense that ranks 11th best in the NFL allowing 200 passing yards per game.

While Watson will be responsible for generating offense, backers will be counting on Cleveland’s defense to play well enough to win on Sunday. The Browns enter Week 4 allowing only 163.7 total yards and 10.7 points per game this season, which both rank best in the NFL.

• The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Cleveland’s last 10 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland’s last 7 games against Baltimore.
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland’s last 5 games at home.
• Cleveland are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games when playing at home against Baltimore.

Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers

SF -14 (-110) | O/U 43.5 (+100)

4:25 PM

Cardinals News & Notes

That noise you heard across much of Arizona last Sunday was a huge sigh of relief. The Cardinals did the unthinkable by upsetting the Dallas Cowboys 28-16 to win their first game since mid-November of last year. They did it by rushing for 222 total yards, including 98 from James Connor on just 14 carries. Quarterback Joshua Dobbs was efficient going 17 of 21 for 189 yards and a touchdown. He also ran for another 55 yards. After fumbling three times in the season opener, Dobbs has cleaned things up as he and his entire team haven’t turned the ball over in each of their last two games.

Get off to a quick start. The Cardinals have been great out of the gate in each of their first three games this season, holding halftime leads in each one. Sure, they had trouble closing things out in their first two contests, but they got the job done against Dallas. A fast start this week will go a long way in keeping this game close and covering the spread. They will also need to find a way to contain McCaffrey. They are giving up nearly 135 yards per game on the ground and will need to be much better in that area if they want to pick up a second consecutive victory.

• Arizona are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.
• Arizona are 1-9 SU in their last 10 games.
• Arizona are 11-5 SU in their last 16 games against San Francisco.
• Arizona are 1-6 SU in their last 7 games on the road.

49ers News & Notes

The 49ers will enter this game with a bit of extra rest. Their most recent game was last Thursday, a dominant 30-12 win over the Giants. Brock Purdy threw for 310 yards while Deebo Samuel had his biggest game of his season so far with 129 receiving yards. But it’s Christian McCaffrey who continues to lead the way for this team. He had 119 total yards, including 85 on the ground to go along with a touchdown. McCaffrey, who leads the league with 353 rushing yards, has found the endzone in 12 consecutive games, three shy of the NFL record. San Francisco is currently tied with the Chiefs at +600 as favorites to win the Super Bowl.

Kansas City Chiefs @ New York Jets

KC -8.5 (-110) | O/U 43 (-110)

8:20 PM

Chiefs News & Notes

Kansas City had no problems beating up on the winless Chicago Bears 41-10 in Week 3, easily covering the spread as a 12.5-point home favorite. This is expected to be a slightly tougher task, at least from an offensive perspective, because their opponent still has a highly-touted defense despite possessing an anemic offense with Zach Wilson under center.

Mahomes is coming off a great performance against the Bears with 272 passing yards and three touchdowns in three quarters of play, avoiding a serious leg injury along the way. Keeping him upright and out of harm’s way here at New York will be a top priority.

With All-Pros Travis Kelce and Chris Jones back in the lineup, the only thing potentially stopping Kansas City from a return trip to the Super Bowl is the health of Mahomes. Tight end Kelce avoided a serious knee injury and has scored a touchdown in each of his two games back while defensive tackle Jones (2.5 sacks) continues to be a force to be reckoned with on defense.

The Jets frustrated Josh Allen in their lone win, forcing him into four turnovers. Mahomes just needs to play another safe and clean game in this spot.

• Kansas City are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City’s last 7 games.
• Kansas City are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games.
• Kansas City are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games against NY Jets.

Jets News & Notes

Wilson has been abysmal since taking over for Rodgers at quarterback, and head coach Robert Saleh seems to be ok with that moving forward. New York does not have many other options at this point, but it would help if the running game got going to help take some pressure off him.

Second-year back Breece Hall has been underwhelming with 16 carries for 27 yards since toting the rock 10 times for 127 yards in the season opener off his ACL injury, and veteran Dalvin Cook has not been much better. Cook has 25 carries for 58 yards in three games, good for 2.3 yards per run, and he led the way with eight for 18 in the team’s 15th consecutive loss to the New England Patriots.

The bad news for New York bettors is that Kansas City has gone 10-1 SU in its last 11 prime-time games. The good news though is that the Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their past four under the lights, something to seriously consider with a point spread near double digits.

This is a huge showcase game for the Jets on national television like the season opener, where everyone watching saw how good they are defensively. They will need to turn in a similar defensive effort to stay within a touchdown, and Wilson must perform better too.

• NY Jets are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 7 of NY Jets’ last 8 games.
• NY Jets are 1-8 SU in their last 9 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Jets’ last 7 games at home.