2023 NFL Week 7 Writeup

Detroit Lions @ Baltimore Ravens

BAL -3 (-108) | O/U 43 (-110)

1:00 PM

Lions News & Notes

The Detroit Lions are fresh off a 20-6 road victory against the Buccaneers which improved their record to 5-1 straight up and against the spread. Their only loss this season came in overtime against the Seahawks. The Lions have gone a perfect 3-0 on the road, which bodes well for them in Baltimore.

Detroit’s Jared Goff has the highest offensive grade in the league among quarterbacks, per PFF, so he’ll present a tougher challenge than Ryan Tannehill and Malik Willis. It’s also worth mentioning that Ravens defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald employs plenty of two-high shell looks which leaves the middle of the field open — the area where Detroit loves to attack.

The Lions offense did get a hit by losing running back David Montgomery to a rib injury, but first-round rookie Jahmyr Gibbs is on track to return after missing the last two weeks with a hamstring injury.

• Detroit are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games.
• Detroit are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games.
• Detroit are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games against Baltimore.
• Detroit are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games against Baltimore.

Ravens News & Notes

• Baltimore are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore’s last 6 games.
• Baltimore are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Baltimore’s last 9 games at home.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs

KC -5.5 (-106) | O/U 47.5 (-110)

4:25 PM

Chargers News & Notes

Los Angeles was unable to come out of their bye week with a win, losing to the Dallas Cowboys 20-17 as 1.5-point home underdogs on Monday night. Justin Herbert went 22-for-37 with 227 passing yards, two touchdown passes, and one interception in the loss. Austin Ekeler was unable to get things going on the ground with only 27 rushing yards on 14 attempts.

The Chargers entered their bye week on a 2-0 SU and ATS winning streak but are now just 2-3 SU and ATS on the year. Los Angeles is 1-7 SU and 5-3 ATS in its last eight games as an underdog.

Los Angeles had its lowest output of the season on offense in its 20-17 loss to the Cowboys on Monday night. The Chargers rank 23rd in the NFL in scoring defense allowing 24.8 points per game, and over their last four road games, they have allowed an average of 28.3 points per game.

Kansas City’s offense isn’t clicking at its usual rate in 2023, but it’s still going to be hard for backers to rely on the Chargers defense in this spot. Justin Herbert and the offense will need to have a bounce-back week on the road this Sunday if Los Angeles hopes to cover the spread or pull off a divisional upset.

• LA Chargers are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games.
• LA Chargers are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games.
• LA Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against Kansas City.
• LA Chargers are 3-15 SU in their last 18 games against Kansas City.

Chiefs News & Notes

The Chiefs leaned on their defense in a 19-8 victory as 10.5-point favorites at home last Sunday against the Denver Broncos. Patrick Mahomes went 30-for-40 with 306 passing yards, one touchdown, and one interception and Travis Kelce led the way with nine catches and 124 receiving yards.

Since losing their season opener 21-20 at home against the Detroit Lions, the Chiefs are on a 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS run. Kansas City has scored more than 27 points in a game only once this season, but the defense has been outstanding during that five-game win streak allowing only 13.4 points per game over that stretch.

Miami Dolphins @ Philadelphia Eagles

PHI -3 (-110) | O/U 52 (-110)

8:20 PM

Dolphins News & Notes

Philadelphia quarterback Jalen Hurts regressed in Week 6 following an MVP-caliber effort in Week 5 at Los Angeles. Hurts threw three more interceptions against the Jets, including one that set up the game-winning score in the final two minutes.

While he did take the Eagles to a 14-3 lead with 5:32 left in the second quarter on a touchdown run and scoring pass to D’Andre Swift, they were surprisingly shut out the rest of the way. This is in stark contrast to how the team beat the Rams the week before, closing the door on their opponent by outscoring them 13-0 after trailing 14-10 with 32 seconds left before halftime.

Miami is seemingly never out of a game and suffered its lone loss by surrendering 31 points to the Buffalo Bills in the first half of an eventual 48-20 defeat, with opposing quarterback Josh Allen throwing three of his four touchdowns in the first two quarters.

That may be what it takes for Hurts to defeat the Dolphins in this spot, but you can bet this team will be better prepared to handle a similar-style signal caller this time around. Miami also needs to start faster and avoid an early deficit because Philly is not Carolina. The Dolphins are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games too, with the only blemish by the Bills.

• Miami are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games.
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami’s last 7 games.
• Miami are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games.
• Miami are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games against Philadelphia.

Eagles News & Notes

Philadelphia quarterback Jalen Hurts regressed in Week 6 following an MVP-caliber effort in Week 5 at Los Angeles. Hurts threw three more interceptions against the Jets, including one that set up the game-winning score in the final two minutes.

While he did take the Eagles to a 14-3 lead with 5:32 left in the second quarter on a touchdown run and scoring pass to D’Andre Swift, they were surprisingly shut out the rest of the way. This is in stark contrast to how the team beat the Rams the week before, closing the door on their opponent by outscoring them 13-0 after trailing 14-10 with 32 seconds left before halftime.

Philadelphia lost right tackle Lane Johnson to an ankle injury at New York, and he has been the backbone of what might be the NFL’s best offensive line. Without Johnson, Hurts will need to make quicker (and better) decisions while using his legs more often to make plays.

The Eagles still have one of the best-receiving tandems in the league in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith as well, so they can definitely keep up with their opponent on the scoreboard. They are 5-0 ATS in their last five SNF games, winning four of them SU.

• Philadelphia are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia’s last 6 games against Miami.
• Philadelphia are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games at home.
• Philadelphia are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games against an opponent in the American Football Conference conference.