2023 NFL Week 12 Thanksgiving Writeup

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions

DET -8.5 (-110) | O/U 47.5 (-110)

12:30 PM

Packers News & Notes

Green Bay is coming off a 23-20 upset win over the Los Angeles Chargers last Sunday at Lambeau Field as three-point home underdogs, earning their second victory there in as many games.

The Packers saw quarterback Jordan Love turn in the best effort of his young career, as the first-year starter completed 27-of-40 passes for 322 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. Love has gone two home games now without throwing a pick, and he will have more pressure on him to lead the offense with running back Aaron Jones going down with a knee injury last week.

The good news is that Jones reportedly did not tear his ACL, although fellow running back Emmanuel Wilson also suffered a shoulder injury, so AJ Dillon is the only healthy player at the position on the roster.

Defensively, Las Vegas must continue to put pressure on the quarterback, and that means Maxx Crosby needs to make Tua Tagovailoa feel uncomfortable throughout the game. Tagovailoa has cooled off from his hot start but managed to stay upright a lot more this season while dodging the injury bug at the same time.

Offensively, Jacobs has to remain effective on the ground with his strong running, so the game does not turn into a track meet. If they can do that, then they can keep it close and possibly cover the spread.

• Green Bay are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Green Bay’s last 6 games.
• Green Bay are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games.
• Green Bay are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games against Detroit.

Lions News & Notes

• Detroit are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games.
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit’s last 7 games.
• Detroit are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games.
• Detroit are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games at home.

Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys

DAL 13.5 (-110) | O/U 48.5 (-110)

4:30 PM

Commanders News & Notes

Washington is coming off a disappointing 31-19 loss to the New York Giants last Sunday as a 7.5-point home favorite. The Commanders crushed the spirits of Survivor contestants everywhere who liked them as their best bet to win straight-up in this spot against the lowly Giants, who ended up completing the season series sweep as well thanks in part to three interceptions by quarterback Sam Howell.

Washington’s first-year starting signal caller saw his last pick returned for a touchdown to provide the final margin of victory, as he was outplayed by New York rookie Tommy DeVito (246 passing yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions) despite him getting sacked nine times for 45 yards.

Howell has shown that he can keep Washington in games with his arm. But he has also shown that he can throw away games with his arm like he did last week versus New York.

In order to keep the Commanders close so they can possibly cover, Howell will need to do his best to avoid sacks and make plays against a secondary that picked off Carolina rookie Bryce Young for a touchdown to seal a 33-10 victory last week. One positive for Washington is that the team has gone 5-1 ATS in its last six road games, and Howell is capable of doing exactly what Daniel Jones and New York did at Dallas last Thanksgiving.

• Washington are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games.
• Washington are 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games against Dallas.
• Washington are 4-10 SU in their last 14 games against Dallas.
• Washington are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on the road.

Cowboys News & Notes

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks

SF -7 (-110) | O/U 44 (-110)

4:25 PM

49ers News & Notes

San Francisco fell just short of beating the number in a 27-14 victory against Tampa Bay last week after closing as a 13.5-point home favorite. That was a heart-breaker for backers of the 49ers, who were leading 27-7 heading into the fourth quarter. Last year, they routed the Buccaneers 35-7 at home, with neither team scoring in the fourth.

The win did not come without a cost for San Francisco though, as All-Pro safety Talanoa Hufanga suffered a torn ACL in his right knee and will miss the rest of the season. Hufanga ranked fourth on the team in tackles (51) and tied for first in interceptions (three).

San Francisco has won eight straight games during the month of November and carries a nine-game winning streak against NFC West opponents into this matchup. The 49ers are also 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games versus divisional foes, with three relatively easy wins over the Seahawks during that stretch, including last year’s playoff meeting.

The closest game of the three was a 21-13 victory for San Francisco at Seattle in Week 15 of last season. The defense held the Seahawks to 20 points total in the two regular-season meetings last year, and another performance like that should be good enough for a cover.

• San Francisco are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games.
• San Francisco are 16-4 SU in their last 20 games.
• San Francisco are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games against Seattle.
• San Francisco are 5-15 SU in their last 20 games against Seattle.

Seahawks News & Notes

Seattle had its share of injuries in a 17-16 setback to the Los Angeles Rams last Sunday, losing quarterback Geno Smith (elbow) and running back Kenneth Walker III (oblique). Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll said on Monday that he thinks Smith will be able to play versus the 49ers, as he was able to return to action after briefly leaving due to injury.

It is believe that Walker’s injury is more serious, and he could end up sitting in favor of healthy rookie Zach Charbonnet. Seattle nearly still beat Los Angeles despite blowing a 13-0 lead, with a 55-yard field goal by kicker Jason Myers missing wide right at the end.

Seattle brings a four-game home winning streak into this one and has not lost consecutive games this season, successfully rebounding from each of its previous three losses with a victory. In order for the Seahawks to go four-for-four, they must do a better job of protecting Smith and keeping him upright.

The 49ers remain one of the best defensive teams in the league even without Hufanga, although his absence could open things up in the passing game, especially since Charbonnet is known to be a solid receiving threat.

In addition, this is Seattle’s lone home game over a four-game span that started last week at Los Angeles and ends with visits to Dallas and San Francisco, so the team should show a sense of urgency to win here in what likely might be its biggest game of the year.

• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle’s last 7 games.
• Seattle are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games.
• Seattle are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games at home.
• Seattle are 10-2 SU in their last 12 games when playing at home against San Francisco.

Miami Dolphins @NY Jets

MIA -9.5 (-115) | O/U 45 (-110)

Friday 3:00 PM

Dolphins News & Notes

Miami enters this week’s action with the most passing yards and total yards in the NFL, but it’s the Dolphins’ defense that has stepped up big lately. Miami recorded two interceptions and a fourth-down stop in the final 10 minutes of Sunday’s 20-13 win over Las Vegas, going UNDER the total for the third time in four games overall and eighth in its last 11 as a favorite.

Since cornerback Jalen Ramsey joined the lineup in Week 8, the Dolphins rank 12th in the NFL in total defense — a drastic improvement from their 21st-place ranking in the first seven weeks. Ramsey had two of Miami’s three interceptions against the Raiders, including a game-sealing pick in the final minute.

Tua Tagovailoa is 3-0 in his career against the Jets, but the bigger key to Miami’s offensive success might be the running game. Miami leads the NFL with an average of 5.6 yards per rush, while New York has allowed the third-most rushing yards in the league.

Laying double digits on the road typically isn’t a wise idea in NFL betting, but the Dolphins have shown a tendency to beat up on weaker opponents. They’ve covered eight straight games against sub-.500 foes, winning the last seven by an average of nearly 17 points per contest.

• Miami are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami’s last 6 games.
• Miami are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games.
• Miami are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against NY Jets.

Jets News & Notes

New York hopes a switch at quarterback will spark an offense that has averaged less than 10 points per game over the past month. Tim Boyle relieved Zach Wilson midway through Sunday’s 32-6 loss at Buffalo and will make his fourth career start against the Dolphins. Boyle was 7-for-15 for 33 yards and an interception last week against the Bills after Wilson completed 7 of 15 throws for 81 yards, a touchdown and a pick.

The Jets have gone UNDER the total in five straight overall, six of their last seven at home and eight straight against AFC East opponents. That lack of offense has also crippled New York’s chances against divisional foes, with the Jets going an ugly 3-18 SU in their last 21 versus AFC East rivals.

With so many skill players frustrated by Wilson’s lack of production, a fresh face at quarterback could be a good thing for the Jets. However, any path to a New York upset will almost certainly rely on another stout effort from a defense that has continued to excel during the Jets’ recent struggles.

Hosting Miami in cold conditions could also help offset some of the significant quarterback advantage the Dolphins enjoy. Miami’s offense hasn’t been nearly as dangerous on the road this season, failing to score more than 20 points in each of its last three on the highway.

• Kansas City are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City’s last 5 games.
• Kansas City are 15-2 SU in their last 17 games.
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City’s last 6 games against Philadelphia.