Week 13
December 3, 2023
NFL 2023 Season:
Current Record: 61-62-1 -$8,980
NFL Playoffs 2022: 144-91-4 $11,835
NFL Reg-Season & Playoffs 2022: 144-91-4 $11,835
CFB Reg-Season & Playoffs: 101-73-2 +$18,888
Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob)
Co Write-Up via @JumpmanJordan – Oddsmaker.com & FanDuel Sportsbooks
Photo Credit: Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images
Miami Dolphins @ Washington Commmanders
MIA -9 (-103) | O/U 49.5 (-106)
1:00 PM
Dolphins News & Notes
With Raheem Mostert leading the attack, and running for multiple TDs for the first time in six games, the Dolphins finally shook off a worrisome stretch of futility on the road in last weekend’s victory over the Jets. Miami averaged just 17 points while suffering lopsided losses in Kansas City, Philadelphia, and Buffalo in its three previous road dates.
However, this team has feasted on inferior opposition, claiming victory by at least a touchdown in seven of their eight victories, each of which have come against teams outside the playoff picture. Accordingly, the Dolphins have emerged as an uneven bet, going 4-4 ATS in their past eight overall, and are just 3-2 ATS in their past five while pegged as road favorited by six or more points.
Winners in just one of four visits to Washington since 1984, the Dolphins will be looking to build on last week’s steady road performance in New York. However, this team must find a way to overcome the slow starts that have plagued them in their past four dates away from Hard Rock Stadium, during which they have scored just one total TD and 13 total points in first-quarter action.
Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has completed just four scoring passes against four picks over that stretch. However, Tua has developed strong chemistry with top receiver Tyreek Hill, who has topped 100 receiving yards in three of four outings, and made scoring catches in six of the past seven games.
- Miami are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games.
- Miami are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games.
- Miami are 3-8 SU in their last 11 games on the road.
- Miami are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games against an opponent in the National Football Conference conference.
Commanders News & Notes
The hopes raised by Washington’s fast start to the season have quickly been dashed. Now teetering on the brink of freefall, the Commanders have been regularly outclassed during their current three-game overall slide, allowing 35 points per game, and 36.5 points per game while losing four straight at home. Not surprisingly, the Commanders now rank dead last in the NFL with 350 points allowed this season, 29 points more than the 31st-ranked Arizona Cardinals.
The team’s defensive shortcomings have overshadowed what has been a largely respectable debut for Sam Howell as an NFL starting quarterback. Howell leads all pivots with 3339 passing yards, and ranks 10th with 18 touchdown passes. The 23-year-old has also contributed scoring runs in each of the past two games, but has thrown just one touchdown pass against four picks while getting sacked eight times over that stretch.
The Commanders have scored just 14.5 points per game in their past two outings, but it is the Washington pass defense that faces the greater challenge after allowing nine total TD passes over the past three games.
Injuries have dramatically impacted the Commanders defensive depth. Lineman James Smith-Williams and De’Jon Harris both remain hobbled by injury, as does cornerback Emmanuel Forbes. With Sam Howell struggling to regain his form, the spotlight will once again be on running back Brian Robinson Jr. The 24-year-old out of Alabama has topped 70 rushing yards in two of his past four home appearances, but has yet to run for a touchdown so far this season.
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington’s last 5 games.
- Washington are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington’s last 7 games against Miami.
- Washington are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games at home..
San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles
SF -3 (+100) | O/U 47.5 (-108)
4:25 PM
49ers News & Notes
Following that three-game losing skid back in October, the Niners appear to have righted the ship and are coming into Philadelphia on a roll.
They have won three straight games, including a decisive 31-13 victory over the Seahawks to take control of the NFC West. Christian McCaffrey led the way once again with 114 rushing yards and a pair of touchdowns. He leads all running backs with 939 rushing yards and has scored 16 touchdowns this season, the most in the league.
As good as their offense is, this team is defined by their defense. They are giving up just 15.5 points per game this season, the fewest in the NFL. The 49ers are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games vs. the Eagles.
Fans of the 49ers continue to ask, “what if” Brock Purdy didn’t get injured in that NFC Championship game last season? This week, they will hopefully get that answer and see if their quarterback can do what most others can’t – and that’s beat the Eagles.
Purdy, who is one of the most efficient passers in the league, has thrown six interceptions over his last six games. He, along with his receiving corps will be key this week, especially on third down.
McCaffrey will likely be a priority for the Eagles defense, so if Deebo Samuel, George Kittle or Brandon Aiyuk can find single coverage and make plays at key times, San Fran will have a chance to hand Philly their second loss of the season.
- San Francisco are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games.
- San Francisco are 16-4 SU in their last 20 games.
- San Francisco are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games against Philadelphia.
- San Francisco are 3-8 SU in their last 11 games against Philadelphia.
Eagles News & Notes
All Philadelphia has done in recent weeks is beat some of the league’s best teams, including Miami, Dallas, Kansas City and Buffalo.
Jalen Hurts passed for three touchdowns and ran in two more in last week’s 37-34 overtime thriller against the Bills, their fifth consecutive victory. The Eagles quarterback has thrown for nearly 2,700 yards this season and has run for over 400 more. He is tied with McCaffrey with 11 rushing touchdowns and is the favorite to win the MVP award at +140.
His main target this season has been A.J. Brown, who despite coming off a quiet performance in Buffalo with just 37 yards, sits fourth in the league with 1,050 receiving yards.
It’s hard to believe that Philadelphia owns the best record in the NFL despite having a minus-2 turnover differential. On the flip side, the 49ers are tied atop the league at +11. It goes to show you how good the Eagles are as a team. If they don’t lose the turnover battle, they will most certainly keep this game close.
Another key for Philly this week could be DeVonta Smith, who is having another great season. With most of the focus on Brown, Smith is averaging 89 receiving yards over his last four games. If Hurts and his two top receivers have big games, the Eagles could take a stranglehold on the top spot in the NFC.
- Philadelphia are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
- Philadelphia are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia’s last 5 games against San Francisco.
- Philadelphia are 8-1 SU in their last 9 games at home.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Green Bay Packers
KC -6 (-108) | O/U 42 (+103)
8:20 PM
Chiefs News & Notes
Kansas City shook off an early 14-0 deficit away from home at the Las Vegas Raiders last Sunday and won 31-17 to cover as a nine-point favorite. The Chiefs are on the road in consecutive weeks, something they have not done since defeating the New York Jets and Minnesota Vikings in Weeks 4 and 5, going 1-1 ATS in those games.
They have not strung together a winning streak of two or more games since taking six in a row between Weeks 2 and 7, and their victory at Las Vegas was the first time they have seen the total go OVER in seven games. Kansas City averaged 15.7 points in its previous three games.
Kansas City did not panic at Las Vegas, relying on reigning league MVP Patrick Mahomes and running back Isiah Pacheco to get the job done. Mahomes completed 27-of-34 passes for 298 yards with two touchdowns through the air while Pacheco had 15 carries for 55 yards, five catches for 34 yards and two touchdowns on the ground.
This balance is what will be needed to win and cover at Green Bay, and both players can do it again.
- Kansas City are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kansas City’s last 7 games.
- Kansas City are 16-3 SU in their last 19 games.
- Kansas City are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against Green Bay.
Packers News & Notes
Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love has come into his own in winning his last two starts, completing 49-of-72 passes (68 percent) for 590 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions. Love will have a much bigger challenge here against one of the NFL’s best defenses, but his performance at Detroit should give him and his team’s backers some confidence.
He looked confident in the pocket and took off running when things broke down, adding three carries for 39 yards on the ground. It also helped that second-year wide receiver Christian Watson had his best performance of the season with five catches for 94 yards and one touchdown, making the passing offense even more dangerous.
Green Bay’s running game is almost non-existent with Aaron Jones sidelined, and he is expected to miss this one as well due to a nagging knee injury. In his place, running back AJ Dillon plodded his way to 43 yards on 14 carries, putting more pressure on Love to perform at a high level.
Fortunately, Love was up to the task last week, and it will be up to him once again to continue his progression and come up big versus the defending Super Bowl champions. If he outplays Mahomes, the Packers can pull off another upset.
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Green Bay’s last 7 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of Green Bay’s last 8 games against Kansas City.
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Green Bay’s last 6 games at home.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay’s last 5 games against an opponent in the American Football Conference conference.
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