Week 14
December 10, 2023
NFL 2023 Season:
Current Record: 9-90-2 +$1,745
NFL Playoffs 2022: 144-91-4 +$11,835
NFL Reg-Season & Playoffs 2022: 144-91-4 +$11,835
CFB Reg-Season & Playoffs: 101-73-2 +$18,888
Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob)
Co Write-Up via @JumpmanJordan – Oddsharks.com & FanDuel Sportsbooks
Photo Credit: Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears
DET -3 (-122) | O/U 43 (-110)
1:00 PM
Lions News & Notes
Detroit has split two games since last playing Chicago, falling at home to the Green Bay Packers 29-22 and then bouncing back to beat the New Orleans Saints 33-28 last Sunday. Each game was basically decided early on, with the Lions trailing the Packers 23-6 before attempting a late rally and then leading the Saints 21-0 before holding them off.
Detroit has not put together a dominant effort on both sides of the ball from start to finish since defeating the Las Vegas Raiders 26-14 back in Week 8. The team’s last four games have all been decided by seven points or less, including three wins by five or less.
Prior to losing at home to Green Bay on Thanksgiving, Detroit was 11-1 ATS in its previous 12 divisional games. The Lions also improved to 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games against conference opponents with the win over the Saints.
This is a very good football team that may just be a notch down from being elite, and the scare they got from the Bears last time should motivate them to start faster at Chicago like they did at New Orleans. If Detroit wants to stay in the race for the No. 1 seed, this is a must-win game.
- Detroit are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit’s last 6 games.
- Detroit are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games.
- Detroit are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games against Chicago.
Bears News & Notes
Chicago looks to be better offensively with quarterback Justin Fields as the starter, and that has resulted in a 2-0 ATS mark since his return from a thumb injury. The Bears probably should have beaten the Lions in the first meeting, as they led by 12 points with four minutes left and played great defense until then.
That defensive effort carried through to Minnesota, with them picking off opposing quarterback Josh Dobbs four times in what was hardly an easy victory. Chicago earned the win without scoring a touchdown for the first time in over 30 years, which is not something to be proud of. Nevertheless, the team will try again to win consecutive games for the first time since the end of the 2021 season.
Chicago has plenty of motivation in this game as well, and the hosts are 3-0 ATS in their last three games as underdogs. Fields is playing for his future in the Windy City and needs to help the Bears win some more games this year to be back in 2024.
The same can be said for head coach Matt Eberflus, who has gotten the defense to play up to its potential recently and proven himself to a degree from that perspective. But when all is said and done, wins are what matter most, and both Fields and Eberflus need this victory.
- Chicago are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago’s last 5 games.
- Chicago are 4-16 SU in their last 20 games.
- Chicago are 2-10 SU in their last 12 games at home.
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs
KC -3 (-105) | O/U 48.5 (-105)
4:25 PM
Bills News & Notes
The Bills have played their way out of the AFC playoff picture during their current 3-5 SU slide, tumbling to 11th in the conference standings, and will likely have to win their final five games to have any chance to overtake Miami atop the AFC East standings.
ATS losers in seven of their past eight, the Bills have been a major betting disappointment on the road, going 1-5 SU and ATS this season including a 25-20 loss to Jacksonville in London that kicked off their current swoon. While Josh Allen leads a sputtering attack that has scored 20 or fewer points in three of their six away games to date, the Bills defense has failed to pick up the slick.
Buffalo has surrendered 30 points per game over their three most recent road losses, and have also gone a meager 1-3 SU and ATS in their past four as road underdogs.
Josh Allen showed flashes of his familiar form last time out, connecting for 339 passing yards and two scoring tosses while also running for two TDs in the team’s overtime loss to the Eagles. Receiver Gabe Davis also enjoyed his most productive day of the season, making six catches for 105 yards and his first touchdown catch in three games.
However, injuries on defense remain a major concern. In addition to already missing cornerbacks Kaiir Elam and Tre’Davious White, the Bills look likely to be without Von Miller as he deals with legal issues, and cornerback Dane Jackson, who is questionable with a concussion.
- Buffalo are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo’s last 5 games.
- Buffalo are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games.
- Buffalo are 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games against Kansas City.
Chiefs News & Notes
While the Chiefs still enjoy a bit of breathing room in their bid to capture an eighth straight AFC West title, concerns about this team’s ability to score have emerged. For the fifth time in seven games, and the seventh time this season, the Chiefs were limited to 21 or fewer points in Sunday’s loss to the Packers.
Now sitting outside the top ten in the NFL in points scored per game, Kansas City has covered the spread in just five of nine outings. However, quarterback Patrick Mahomes has continued to find the end zone with regularity, particularly on home turf, where has tossed for 14 touchdowns in six appearances.
The Chiefs’ uncharacteristic low scoring has also generated steady returns from the UNDER, which has paid out in each of their past four home contests.
With Chiefs receivers struggling at times to pull in passes, it is shaping up to be another big game for rusher Isiah Pacheco. The 24-year-old racked up 110 yards and one scoring run last week and has now reached the end zone three times over the past two games after failing to score in his previous five outings.
Injuries have tested the depth of the Chiefs receiving corps. Among the injured is Mecole Hardman Jr., who is now sidelined indefinitely after undergoing surgery last week to repair a thumb injury. Travis Kelce remains the go-to guy for Mahomes. Kelce has averaged 86 receiving yards over the past two games and has compiled 813 receiving yards and five scores to date, but has managed to make just one TD pass in his past five outings.
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kansas City’s last 8 games.
- Kansas City are 16-4 SU in their last 20 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Kansas City’s last 20 games against Buffalo.
- The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Kansas City’s last 8 games at home.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys
DAL -3.5 (+100) | O/U 51.5 (-110)
8:20 PM
Eagles News & Notes
The Eagles are coming off an emotional loss at the hands of the 49ers. San Francisco showed Philadelphia that the route to the Super Bowl won’t be an easy one, beating them 42-19. The aforementioned Jalen Hurts continues to show why he’s in the mix for MVP though, throwing for nearly 300 yards while passing for one touchdown and rushing for another. He is tied for the second-best odds to win the award at +350. A.J. Brown had eight receptions for 114 yards and now has over 1,160 on the season, fourth most in the league. And despite being held to just 13 yards on the ground last week, D’Andre Swift is fourth amongst running backs with 783 rushing yards this season.
Despite having the best record in football, the Eagles defense has struggled for parts of the season, including in recent weeks in which they have surrendered at least 30 points in three of their last five contests. If they are to seize control of the NFC East and beat the Cowboys once again, they will need to play much better defense and contain the Dak Prescott attack. They are allowing 260 passing yards per game, fourth most in the league and face a Dallas air attack that is the third best this season. It will also be imperative for Philly’s offensive line to protect Hurts against Micah Parsons and company.
- Philadelphia are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia’s last 5 games.
- Philadelphia are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games.
- Philadelphia are 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games against Dallas.
Cowboys News & Notes
Dak Prescott is on an absolute tear. Dallas has scored at least 40 points in four of their last six games with the Cowboys pivot leading the way with 20 touchdown passes during that stretch and just two interceptions. Prescott threw for 299 yards and three scores in their 41-35 win last week vs. the Seahawks. He is now the front-runner in the race for MVP at +300. His favorite target all season long has been CeeDee Lamb. The former Oklahoma Sooner surpassed the 100-yard receiving mark for the sixth time this season in that win, and sits second in the league with 1,182 yards.
Establish a solid run game. We all know what Prescott can do through the air, but if Dallas is to be successful, they will need to show the Eagles they can control the ball on the ground. Tony Pollard rushed for just 51 yards in their loss to the Eagles earlier this season with the Cowboys picking up 73 total yards on the ground that game. Another key matchup for Dallas will be DaRon Bland vs. Jalen Hurts. The Eagles quarterback has thrown 10 interceptions this season, tied for fourth most in the league, while Bland has been a pick-six machine with eight total interceptions, five of them for scores.
- Dallas are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas’ last 6 games.
- Dallas are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of Dallas’ last 6 games against Philadelphia.
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