Week 13
November 30, 2023
NFL 2024 Season:
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Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob)
Co Write-Up via @BookieNotes – BigAl.com & FanDuel Sportsbooks
Photo Credit: AP Photo/Gareth Patterson
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
CIN -2.5 (-122) | O/U 47.5 (-104)
SUN 1:00 PM
Steelers News & Notes
The Pittsburgh Steelers head into Cincinnati on top of the AFC North and trying to fend off the hard-charging Baltimore Ravens. They took a blow last week in a disappointing loss to the lowly Cleveland Browns in Cleveland. The Steelers, coming off a big win at home over the Ravens, couldn’t overcome wintry conditions in Cleveland and an inconsistent offense in a 24-19 loss. Quarterback Russell Wilson finished 21-of-28 for 271 yards and a touchdown but was sacked four times in the loss. The Steelers finished with 368 yards of total offense and turned the ball over once. Defensively, the Steelers allowed 304 yards of total offense to the Browns and limited them to 1-of-10 on third down conversions but couldn’t stop the Browns from driving down the field late to put the game away. Linebacker Patrick Queens led the way with seven tackles and one quarterback hit in the game.
The Steelers look to rebound at the expense of the Bengals on Sunday afternoon. The Steelers come into this game ranked 14th in scoring offense and 18th in total offense. The Steelers are 27th in the league in rushing and 26th in passing. They are just 30th in the red zone this season as well. The Steelers are 23rd in sacks allowed this season. On the defensive end, the Steelers are fourth in scoring defense this season and 9th in total defense. They are fifth against the run and 17th against the pass. The Steelers are 21st in sacks per game and 11th in red zone defense. The Steelers are an impressive 2nd in turnover margin this season and 18th in penalties per game.
Key Injuries – LB Alex Highsmith is questionable. CB Cory Trice Jr., CB CJ Henderson, WR Roman Wilson, and DT Montravius Adams is out.
- Pittsburgh are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh’s last 6 games.
- Pittsburgh are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games.
- Pittsburgh are 14-4 SU in their last 18 games against Cincinnati.
Bengals News & Notes
The Cincinnati Bengals had the week off last week to lick their wounds and prepare for the Steelers after another disappointing loss, 34-27, on November 17th. The Bengals fell behind big, 24-6, at the half before storming back to tie the game. Two missed field goals by the usually reliable Evan MacPherson kept the Bengals from taking the lead and doomed their fate. Quarterback Joe Burrow shook off a slow start to finish with 356 yards passing and three touchdowns. Wide receiver JaMarr Chase had another big night with 75 yards receiving and two touchdowns. The Bengals totaled 452 yards of offense in the loss. Defensively, the Bengals were gouged for 435 yards of total offense at over six yards per play. Geno Stone led the way with nine tackles for the Bengals.
The Bengals can’t afford to pick up any more losses this season if they have any hopes of making the playoffs. They have the talent but they have not shown the consistency this season to make that happen. The Bengals come into this game ranked sixth in the NFL in scoring offense and 9th in total offense. They are just 25th in rushing but are first in passing. The Bengals are third in the NFL in red zone offense and are 15th in sacks allowed this season. Defensively, the Bengals are just 28th in scoring defense and 23rd in total defense. They are 17th against the run and 23rd against the pass. The Bengals are just 31st in the league in red zone defense. They are 30th in sacks per game this season. The Bengals are 15th in turnover margin this season. They have been effective in preventing mistakes, ranked 2nd in fewest penalties per game.
Key Injuries – DT Sheldon Rankins, WR Charlies Jones, OT Orlando Brown Jr., and LB Joe Banchie are questionable. CB DJ Turner II is out.
- Cincinnati are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 8 of Cincinnati’s last 10 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 7 of Cincinnati’s last 8 games at home.
- Cincinnati are 2-9 SU in their last 11 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh.
Baltimore Ravens at Philadelphia Eagles
BAL -3 (-108) | O/U 50.5 (-106)
SUN 4:25 PM
Eagles News & Notes
Seven straight wins have the Eagles primed for a home playoff game. They’ve shaken off last season’s brutal finish and then some. The turnaround is possible because of a defense allowing the sixth-fewest points per game. Philadelphia holds foes to the fewest yards per pass attempt and second-fewest yards per play. They surrender 4.3 yards per carry (11th). This unit has 33 sacks (9th) and 14 takeaways (t-13th) helping them out. Philly is limiting foes to 15.2 points per game on the road. Are they ready for the Ravens?
After an uneven start (by their standards), the Eagles have scored more than 25 points in six straight. They’re seventh in scoring with 26.9 points per contest. Saquon Barkley leads the NFL in rushing yards and yards per attempt. Jalen Hurts is fourth in yards per pass attempt and has 11 rushing TDs. Philadelphia is eighth in yards per play and tied for the eighth-fewest giveaways. Barkley leads the NFL with 1,392 yards rushing (10 TDs) and Hurt is second in the NFL with 11 rushing TDs. Will their run continue?
Key Injuries – DeVonta Smith (questionable); Darius Slay Jr. (out)
- Philadelphia are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.
- Philadelphia are 7-0 SU in their last 7 games.
- Philadelphia are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games on the road.
- Philadelphia are 6-0 SU in their last 6 games against an opponent in the AFC conference.
Ravens News & Notes
Defensively, Baltimore isn’t quite as sharp. They allow 24.5 points per game (23rd) and it doesn’t get any better at home (32.8 ppg). That’s despite a run defense that holds foes to the fewest yards per carry. Rather, the Ravens have surrendered more passing yards than every other team. This year’s unit is 26th in yards per pass attempt. The pass rush has 39 sacks (3rd) to help hide the back seven. Baltimore’s 11 takeaways (t-18th) haven’t been enough of a factor to mask the secondary. They do get LB Roquan Smith back from a hamstring injury that caused him to miss the Chargers’ game and the last part of the Steelers’ loss (18-16). How will they handle the Eagles?
Key Injuries – Kyle Van Noy (doubtful)
- The total has gone OVER in 7 of Baltimore’s last 8 games.
- Baltimore are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore’s last 5 games at home.
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore’s last 5 games against an opponent in the NFC conference.
San Francisco 49ers at Buffalo Bills
BUF -5.5 (-122) | O/U 45.5 (-105)
SUN 8:20 PM
49ers News & Notes
The San Francisco 49ers find themselves in an unfamiliar spot, sitting in last in the NFC West. There is still plenty of time to climb the standings, as the Rams and Seahawks have 6-5 records, and the Cardinals and 49ers are at 5-6. San Francisco has lost their last two games coming into this one, they dropped a home game to the Seahawks, then got rolled by the Packers. In the loss against Green Bay, backup quarterback Brandon Allen got the start and finished with 199 yards with one TD and one INT in the game.
Brock Purdyis questionable for this game after sitting out against Green Bay. Purdy has a shoulder injury, and if he cannot go, Brandon Allen will get another start. Christian McCaffrey has played in just three games and has not looked like his former self. He has 149 yards through the three games, with a high of 79 against Seattle. Jordan Mason is likely to continue to get carries, he has 711 yards and three touchdowns on the year. George Kittle has been their top pass catcher, he has 49 catches for 642 yards and eight touchdowns.
San Francisco ranks 13th in the NFL in scoring with 23.6 points per game, and their defense ranks 21st by giving up 23.6 per game. Fred Warner has been their top tackler from the linebacker spot with 84 on the year and has two of the team’s 11 interceptions. Deommodore Lenoir has two interceptions as a corner, but is listed as questionable for this game. Nick Bosa is also listed as questionable, while would leave defensive end Leonard Floyd as their sack leader with 6.5 of the team’s 28 on the season.
Key Injuries – Questionable: QB Brock Purdy, WR Chris Conley, T Trent Williams, DE Nick Bosa, DT Kevin Givens, CB Deommodore Lenoir,
- San Francisco are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games.
- San Francisco are 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games against Buffalo.
- San Francisco are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on the road.
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco’s last 5 games against an opponent in the AFC conference.
Bills News & Notes
Allen had a 26-yard touchdown run to seal the win over Kansas City, leading receiver Khalil Shakir to say, “When Josh takes off, I find myself just watching, like, ‘Wow, he’s different. When he took off today, I just started yelling. I couldn’t stop yelling. I was blanking in the head.” Josh Allen is still fighting for his first MVP trophy and has his name in the running again with 2,543 passing yards on a 64.0% completion rate with an 18-5 TD-INT ratio. Allen is second on the team in rushing with 316 yards and another five scores. James Cook is their top back, he has 596 yards on 4.3 YPC with 10 touchdowns. Khalil Shakir has been their top pass catcher, he is a 6’0 receiver with 56 catches for 599 yards and two touchdowns.
The Bills are 3rd in the NFL in scoring with 29.1 points per game, and their defense ranks 7th by giving up just 19.5 points per game. Linebacker Dorian Williams leads the team in tackles with 97, over thirty more tackles than the next highest Bill. They have 27 sacks on the year, led by edge rusher Greg Rosseau with 5.5. They have 13 interceptions on the season with six players contributing two each including safety Damar Hamlin.
Key Injuries – Questionable: WR Keon Coleman, TE Dalton Kincaid
- Buffalo are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo’s last 6 games.
- Buffalo are 6-0 SU in their last 6 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo’s last 5 games against San Francisco.
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