2023 NFL Week 1 Writeup

Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns

CIN -2 (-108) | O/U 47.5 (-19)

1:00 PM

Kansas City is 6-0 SU and 0-6 ATS in its last 6 vs AFC West foes.
Las Vegas is 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in its last 7 vs AFC West foes.
The OVER is 10-2 in Kansas City’s last 12 road games.

Bengals News & Notes

Everything for Cincinnati depends on Burrow, who has helped his team go 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six road games. The Bengals have won seven games in a row as favorites, and they ride a four-game divisional winning streak into this one as well.

Cleveland has not been good in divisional games recently with a 6-15 ATS mark in the past 21, and Cincinnati has won eight of 10 meetings in the series. The Bengals are banking on Joey B continuing to torture the Browns, and the line will likely move as his status clear up.

• Cincinnati are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cincinnati’s last 9 games.
• Cincinnati are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games.
• Cincinnati are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games against Cleveland.

Browns News & Notes

It is a new year and new beginning for Watson, who has the potential to be a real wild card in the AFC North this season. If he plays like he did at his best with the Houston Texans, Cleveland can win the division and become a legit Super Bowl contender too.

But he does not have to be Superman for the Browns to win this game. Watson does need to be better than Burrow as a runner and passer though, making good decisions along the way. If he can do that and let Chubb run like he can, Cleveland can win.

• The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland’s last 7 games.
• Cleveland are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati.
• Cleveland are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games against an opponent in the American Football Conference conference.
• Cleveland are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games against an opponent in the American Football Conference North division.

Miami Dolphins @ Los Angeles Chargers

LAC -3 (-108) | O/U 51 (-103)

4:25 PM

Dolphins News & Notes

The Dolphins surged out of the gate last season with a 3-0 SU and ATS run that included impressive wins on the road over Baltimore and at home against Buffalo. When Tua Tagovailoa was healthy under center, Miami looked like a legitimate Super Bowl contender last season.

How far the Dolphins go in 2023 may simply come down to whether or not Tagovailoa can remain on the field. But he’s good to go this Sunday against the Chargers, and that should mean plenty of firepower on offense and a solid shot at kicking off this year with a road win.

Mahomes found All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce for four touchdowns in the last meeting with Las Vegas, a 30-29 thriller that Kansas City rallied to win on Monday Night Football back in Week 5. The Chiefs trailed 17-0 at home in a wild shootout, but Kelce took over in the third quarter to give them a 24-20 lead after his second and third scores. If Mahomes and Kelce can continue to exploit that matchup, they should win and cover.

• Miami are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
• Miami are 1-6 SU in their last 7 games.
• Miami are 12-6 ATS in their last 18 games against LA Chargers.
• Miami are 12-5 SU in their last 17 games against LA Chargers.

Chargers News & Notes

Los Angeles’s rushing defense was a consistent issue for the team throughout 2022 ranking 28th in the NFL allowing 145.8 rushing yards per game. Raheem Mostert averaged 4.9 yards per carry last year, and De’Von Achane showed off tantalizing speed in his college career at Texas Tech.

With all of the key players on the Chargers offense healthy, Los Angeles shouldn’t have too much trouble scoring at home on Sunday. To win this game however, the Chargers will need to be a lot better against the run than they were last year in this one, which may be easier said than done with the threat of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle looming in the passing game.

• LA Chargers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games.
• LA Chargers are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 16 of LA Chargers’ last 18 games against Miami.
• LA Chargers are 8-4 SU in their last 12 games at home.

Dallas Cowboy @ New York Giants

DAL -3.5 (-108) | O/U 45 (-108)

8:20 PM

Cowboys News & Notes

The Dallas defense was great a year ago, led by pass-rushing linebacker Micah Parsons, who ranked seventh in the league with 13.5 sacks. Parsons is favored to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year honors after totaling 26.5 sacks in his first two seasons, but the team has improved its secondary with the addition of former Defensive Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore.

Trevon Diggs and Gilmore may be the best pair of cornerbacks on any team, and they will try to hold New York’s receivers in check while Parsons pressures opposing quarterback Daniel Jones. If the Cowboys can run the ball effectively, their quarterback Dak Prescott limits mistakes and the D comes to play, they can cover.

• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas’ last 5 games.
• Dallas are 13-5 SU in their last 18 games.
• Dallas are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games against NY Giants.
• Dallas are 11-1 SU in their last 12 games against NY Giants.

Giants News & Notes

Jones thrived under Daboll last season and was rewarded with a four-year, $160 million contract extension after some thought he might be a candidate for the franchise tag. Instead, that went to Barkley, and both offensive players ended up back for another run at the postseason.

The hope is that Jones keeps progressing like Josh Allen did when Daboll was the offensive coordinator of the Buffalo Bills. He is the biggest key to victory for the Giants in this spot as he did not play particularly well in two losses to the Cowboys last year. In fact, Jones is 1-5 in six lifetime starts versus Dallas but has gone 3-3 ATS.

• NY Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.
• The total has gone OVER in 7 of NY Giants’ last 9 games against Dallas.
• NY Giants are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games at home.
• NY Giants are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when playing at home against Dallas.