Week 15
December 16-17, 2023
NFL 2023 Season:
Current Record: 9-90-2 +$1,745
NFL Playoffs 2022: 144-91-4 +$11,835
NFL Reg-Season & Playoffs 2022: 144-91-4 +$11,835
CFB Reg-Season & Playoffs: 101-73-2 +$18,888
Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob)
Co Write-Up via @JumpmanJordan – Oddsharks.com & FanDuel Sportsbooks
Photo Credit: Photo by Adam Hunger/AP
Denver Broncos @ Detroit Lions
DET -4.5 (-110) | O/U 47.5 (-115)
SAT 8:15 PM
Broncos News & Notes
Denver was able to get back on track last week with a 24-7 win over the Los Angeles Chargers to stay in the AFC playoff race. The Broncos closed as three-point road underdogs and won fairly easily, something they hope will help them during this road trip to the Motor City.
Their defense did an excellent job holding Los Angeles in check, as opposing wide receiver Keenan Allen had six catches for 68 yards and was held out of the end zone. That will be one of the main goals here in Detroit too, with cornerback Patrick Surtain II likely shadowing Amon-Ra St. Brown and trying to contain him as well.
Denver’s defense is the biggest key for the team because of how well the unit has performed lately. The Broncos have allowed 22 points or less in their past eight games as they have won six of them to successfully turn their campaign around.
Of course it also helps that quarterback Russell Wilson has stabilized the offense with his play recently, a huge upgrade compared to where he was around this time last year. Credit head coach Sean Payton for that, as the players have bought into his system and done well with it. If the D keeps it rolling, Denver can improve to 16-5 SU and ATS against winning teams.
- Denver are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Denver’s last 8 games.
- Denver are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games.
- Denver are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games against Detroit.
Lions News & Notes
Detroit turned in a stinker at Chicago last Sunday, failing to finish what the team did versus the same opponent in Week 11. The Lions spotted the Bears a 26-14 lead in the first meeting before rallying back in the last four minutes for a 31-26 victory.
The second time around, Chicago made sure that did not happen again, with the defense frustrating Detroit quarterback Jared Goff in freezing temperatures. Goff has been known to be a poor signal caller in cold weather, and he backed that up again last week. Fortunately for him and his teammates, the Lions play each of their last four games of the regular season indoors.
For better or worse, Goff drives the Detroit offense. That is not to say running backs David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs are not critical to the team’s success because they are, but Goff’s play will ultimately determine how far the Lions go this season.
If he plays well and avoids sacks and turnovers, then the sky is the limit. Unfortunately, that has not been the case in their losses this year. If they are going to end a three-game series skid both SU and ATS versus the Broncos, then Goff must not lock on St. Brown and instead spread the ball around to different receivers, even the backs. If he does that, then Detroit wins.
- Detroit are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit’s last 5 games.
- Detroit are 14-5 SU in their last 19 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit’s last 5 games against Denver.
New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins
MIA -8.5 (-105) | O/U 36.5 (-110)
SUN 1:00 PM
Jets News & Notes
New York had its best offensive performance in months on Sunday, rolling to a 30-6 win as 3-point home underdogs hosting the Houston Texans. Zach Wilson reclaimed the starting job and had one of the best games of his career going 27-for-36 with 301 passing yards, two passing touchdowns and no interceptions. Breece Hall had 40 rushing yards on 10 carries and caught eight passes for 86 receiving yards and a touchdown.
The Jets had gone 0-5 SU and ATS and averaged only nine points per game in their five games prior to Sunday’s strong showing. They enter this road game against the Dolphins with a 2-8 SU and 2-7-1 ATS record in their last 10 games away from home.
Zach Wilson got off to a slow start last Sunday as the Jets entered halftime against the Texans stuck in a 0-0 tie. But with an explosive second half, Wilson led the Jets on six scoring drives and collected two passing touchdowns.
All eyes will be on Wilson this Sunday to see if the much-maligned quarterback can build on his impressive performance. New York’s defense should do its part to keep the Jets in the game, especially if Tyreek Hill is out or limited. So as has been the case all season, the defense will need some help from what has been one of the NFL’s worst offenses in 2023.
- NY Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Jets’ last 8 games.
- NY Jets are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games.
- NY Jets are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games against Miami.
Dolphins News & Notes
The Dolphins took a 27-13 lead with under five minutes left in the game on Monday night before losing to the Tennessee Titans 28-27 in stunning fashion as 13.5-point home favorites. With Tyreek Hill hampered by an ankle injury, Raheem Mostert was Miami’s most effective player on offense with 96 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 21 carries in the loss.
Hill is listed as questionable to return against the Jets after attempting to play through the pain in the second half on Monday. The Dolphins also lost starting center Connor Williams for the season due to a torn ACL he suffered in the game. Miami is 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in its last seven home games.
When Tyreek Hill wasn’t on the field on Monday night, the Dolphins looked nothing like a team that ranks best in the NFL in total offense averaging 423.6 total yards per game and second in scoring offense with 31.6 points per game. Hill is vital to making this offense go, and his status for Sunday’s game will have a huge impact on Miami’s winning chances.
But regardless of what Hill does on offense, the Dolphins defense is going to need to bounce back from Monday night’s collapse. Miami allowed only 13.7 points per game during a 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS run in the three games before last week’s loss that included a 34-13 road win against the Jets. A similar effort to those on Sunday would help cover this large spread.
- Miami are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami’s last 6 games.
- Miami are 9-4 SU in their last 13 games.
- Miami are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games at home.
Dallas Cowboys @ Buffalo Bills
BUF -1.5 (-118) | O/U 50 (-110)
SUN 4:25 PM
Cowboys News & Notes
he Cowboys extended their recent dominance on home turf with last weekend’s lopsided win over the Eagles. However, things have not gone nearly as well on the road.
The Cowboys have lost eight of 13 road contests overall, and while they sport a 3-3 SU away record this season, they have seen those wins come against opponents well out of playoff contention including Carolina, the Los Angeles Chargers, and New York Giants. Dallas romped to big wins over New York and Carolina, but have otherwise struggled to score points on the road, averaging just 17.3 points over their other four road defeats.
The Cowboys have also been a bet as road underdogs, going winless SU and ATS in their past four.
The Cowboys’ formidable offense enjoyed another big day in last weekend’s date with the Eagles and has now averaged over 40 points scored per game during their 5-0 SU run.
With two scoring passes on Sunday, quarterback Dak Prescott has now thrown for multiple touchdowns in seven straight outings, tallying 22 total TS passes and one scoring run over that stretch.
CeeDee Lamb has emerged as Prescott’s favorite target while making seven total scoring passes over the past seven games and topping 100 receiving yards five times over the past eight games. And while he failed to find the end zone last weekend, veteran Brandin Cooks has emerged as a reliable target in clutch situations while making five TD catches in eight games.
However, the Cowboys’ inability to effectively move the ball after halftime last weekend is a concern. Dallas was forced to settle for three field goals while failing to drive into the Eagles red zone after recess.
- Dallas are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas’ last 7 games.
- Dallas are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games.
- Dallas are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games against Buffalo.
Bills News & Notes
The Bills preserved their rapidly fading playoff hopes with Sunday night’s narrow victory over the Chiefs, but have plenty to do to get back into the good graces of sports bettors.
Buffalo has claimed outright wins in three of their past four home dates, but have managed to pay out ATS in just two of their past nine including five of six as betting chalk.
Those mixed results extend to recent dates with NFC opponents, with the Bills winning nine of their past 10 while going 4-5-1 ATS, capped by three straight ATS defeats. The Bills have also lost two of five when favored at home by three or fewer points.
The Bills got the bounces and the calls in Sunday night’s victory over the Chiefs, but can they build on that success against arguably the toughest offense they will face all season?
Josh Allen was effective, if not spectacular while compiling 233 passing yards, one passing TD, and one scoring run. However, Allen completed just 54.8% of pass attempts and has now failed to reach 60% in three of the past four games. The towering 27-year-old has still managed to toss for seven scores over that stretch, but he has also thrown at least one pick in nine straight games.
With the Bills averaging just 23.2 points per game over their last nine outings, that is a trend that cannot continue against the high-powered Cowboys. Indeed, defense will be key to the Bills’ chance on Sunday. The duo of Ed Oliver and Greg Rousseau caused problems for Patrick Mahomes on Sunday while compiling five total tackles and one sack, and a repeat performance will be expected.
- Buffalo are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo’s last 6 games.
- Buffalo are 13-7 SU in their last 20 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Buffalo’s last 8 games against Dallas.
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