Week 16
December 24-25, 2023
NFL 2023 Season:
Current Record: 9-90-2 +$1,745
NFL Playoffs 2022: 144-91-4 +$11,835
NFL Reg-Season & Playoffs 2022: 144-91-4 +$11,835
CFB Reg-Season & Playoffs: 101-73-2 +$18,888
Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob)
Co Write-Up via @JumpmanJordan – Oddsharks.com & FanDuel Sportsbooks
Photo Credit: Photo by Adam Hunger/AP
Dallas Cowboys @ Miami Dolphins
MIA -1.5 (-120) | O/U 47.5 (-105)
SUN 4:25 PM
Cowboys News & Notes
There were few positives to take away from last weekend’s lopsided defeat to the Bills. The Cowboys were limited to just 115 total yards before embarking on an 80-yard garbage-time scoring drive on their final possession of the game. Overall, Dak Prescott connected for just 134 scoring yards while averaging just 3.9 yards per attempt and failing to find the end zone for the first time since Week 1. Prescott also tossed his first pick in five games while getting sacked three times. The Dallas defense also wilted in the face of a relentless ground attack by the Bills, surrendering 266 yards and three scoring runs, and have now allowed 126 rushing yards per game and eight total scoring runs over their past seven outings. However, history is on the Cowboys’ side as they get set to visit Miami, where they have topped the Dolphins in three straight meetings and six of seven overall while giving up just 15.6 points per game.
Now set to face a ferocious defense for the second time in as many weeks, Dak Prescott must rediscover the form that produced 22 total scoring passes over his previous seven outings. Prescott has developed impressive chemistry with CeeDee Lamb, who made scoring catches in five straight outings prior to last week, and recorded seven total scores over the past six games. More production would also be welcomed from veteran receiver Brandin Cooks and tight end Jake Ferguson, who have both failed to score in the past two games. However, the Cowboys offensive line has shown cracks while allowing Prescott to get sacked 10 times over the past three weeks.
- Dallas are 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games.
- Dallas are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games.
- Dallas are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games against Miami.
- Dallas are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games against Miami.
Dolphins News & Notes
The Dolphins atoned for their heartbreaking loss to Tennessee two weeks ago by turning in their stingiest defensive performance last weekend against the Jets, surrendering a franchise record of just 103 yards of total offense in their first shutout victory in over three years. The Miami defense was particularly effective against the rush, allowing just 80 yards while recording two picks, and has now surrendered just one TD pass over the past three weeks. On offense, Raheem Mostert continued to rewrite the Dolphins record book while running for 42 yards and two scores, and now owns franchise single-season record with 18 rushing TDs and 20 total TDs, including seven total scores in the past four games.
While the Dolphins have ample reason to be impressed with themselves after last weekend’s victory, their recent success masks the troubles they have endured this season when facing topflight opponents, including crushing losses to Buffalo, Philadelphia, and Kansas City. With top receiver Tyreek Hill sidelined by injury, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has connected on just one total scoring pass over the past two weeks. Indeed, Hill has accounted for 12 of the team’s 26 total scoring catches and four of their six TD receptions over the past five games. If Hill is not ready to return, expect Raheem Mostert to have ample opportunity to pad the TD record he set last week, particularly against a porous Dallas rush defense that was thoroughly exposed last week in Buffalo.
- Miami are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games.
- Miami are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Miami’s last 10 games against Dallas.
- Miami are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games at home.
Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs
KC -10.5 (-110) | O/U 40.5 (-110)
MON 1:00 PM
Raiders News & Notes
Las Vegas put up a franchise-record point total in a 63-21 rout of the Los Angeles Chargers in the Week 15 Thursday Night Football game as the players continue to play hard for interim head coach Antonio Pierce. The Raiders have gone 3-3 SU and 4-1-1 ATS in six games since Pierce took over for the fired Josh McDaniels, and rookie quarterback Aidan O’Connell turned in his best performance as a pro against the Chargers.
O’Connell had lost his first career start at Los Angeles back in Week 4, getting sacked seven times and turning the ball over three times in a 24-17 defeat. But he redeemed himself in the rematch with four touchdown passes and no turnovers.
Las Vegas played with a ton of adrenaline last Thursday versus Los Angeles, with the players knowing they had to perform well in order to help Pierce stay on as head coach next season. However, that will be extremely difficult to maintain here against the defending Super Bowl champions, who trailed the Raiders 14-0 four weeks ago at Allegiant Stadium before rallying for a 31-17 victory.
Pacheco scored two touchdowns in that game, so it will be imperative that Las Vegas shuts down the running game here. The Raiders have gone 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games against teams with winning records, so Pierce has done a good job getting his players motivated to play the NFL’s best.
- Las Vegas are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Las Vegas’ last 12 games.
- Las Vegas are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against Kansas City.
- Las Vegas are 0-6 SU in their last 6 games against Kansas City.
Chiefs News & Notes
Kansas City got by in two games without running back Isiah Pacheco, splitting them to stay firmly atop the division. Pacheco sat out due to a shoulder injury and had clean-up surgery last week, but he has been deemed good to go for Week 16 barring a setback, according to head coach Andy Reid. The Chiefs rebounded nicely from a 20-17 home loss to the Buffalo Bills by beating the New England Patriots 27-17 last Sunday and pushing on the point spread as 10-point road favorites.
With a favorable schedule ahead, Kansas City also still has an outside shot at the No. 1 seed in the AFC with the Baltimore Ravens (11-3) and Miami Dolphins (10-4) facing even tougher competition ahead of them.
Kansas City has dominated divisional foes lately, going 14-1 SU in their last 15 and 4-1 ATS in their past five. The lone blemish was an uncharacteristic 24-9 loss to the Denver Broncos in Week 8 when quarterback Patrick Mahomes was dealing with the flu. The Chiefs closed as seven-point road favorites in that game, and they have managed to cover the spread just twice in six games since then.
To beat the number in this spot, Kansas City will simply need to pick up where the team left off in the last meeting. It is worth noting that rookie wide receiver Rashee Rice had eight catches for a career-high 107 yards and a touchdown in that game, and he has scored in three of the last four now.
- The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Kansas City’s last 10 games.
- Kansas City are 15-5 SU in their last 20 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of Kansas City’s last 7 games against Las Vegas.
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City’s last 5 games at home.
Baltimore Ravens @ San Francisco 49ers
SF -5.5 (-118) | O/U 46.5 (-110)
MON 8:25 PM
Ravens News & Notes
Baltimore has played four NFC teams so far this season and beaten all of them, although the team went 2-2 ATS in those games. Overall, the Ravens have won eight straight games against teams from that conference to go along with a 5-3 ATS mark dating back to last season.
They are coming off a 23-7 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars in the Week 15 Sunday Night Football matchup, covering the spread easily as four-point road favorites. The only negative from that impressive victory was promising rookie running back Keaton Mitchell suffered a torn ACL after rushing for 73 yards on nine carries.
Baltimore has the top rushing attack in the NFL, averaging 163.8 yards per game, while San Francisco is third with 139.9. But the Ravens use a committee approach to the running game instead of rolling primarily with one player like the 49ers do. Unfortunately for Baltimore, Mitchell’s season-ending injury literally hurts the team and that plan because he was such a dangerous weapon.
The Ravens will now rely more heavily on running backs Gus Edwards and Justice Hill in hopes of wearing down the 49ers defensively. Jackson is the X-factor though with his legs as well as his arm, with Baltimore looking to improve to 9-1 SU in 10 games against teams with winning records.
- Baltimore are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games.
- Baltimore are 8-1 SU in their last 9 games.
- Baltimore are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games against San Francisco.
- Baltimore are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games on the road.
49ers News & Notes
San Francisco continued its recent dominance last Sunday with a 45-29 win over the Arizona Cardinals, covering the spread as a 12-point road favorite. The 49ers have two legitimate MVP contenders in their quarterback Purdy and running back Christian McCaffrey, both of whom are battling Jackson for the award.
Purdy leads the NFL in many of the major passing categories while McCaffrey has the most rushing yards and is tied for the most touchdowns with 20. Together, they are leading the third-ranked scoring offense at 30.4 points per game while the Ravens are right behind them at 27.4. The main difference between the two teams is San Francisco’s lethal passing attack (262.6 yards per game), which ranks second in the league behind the Miami Dolphins (274.4).
Unlike its opponent, San Francisco has struggled versus opponents from the other conference lately, with two of the team’s three losses this season coming against AFC foes. The 49ers fell to the AFC North’s Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals earlier this year in Weeks 6 and 8 during a season-high three-game skid, and now they have to take on the division leaders.
In order to reverse that trend, they need to continue the offensive balance that has fueled their current winning streak. While Purdy’s play has certainly been important, you can definitely make the case that McCaffrey is the true MVP.
- San Francisco are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games.
- San Francisco are 6-0 SU in their last 6 games.
- San Francisco are 13-1 SU in their last 14 games at home.
- San Francisco are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing at home against Baltimore.
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