Week 17
December 30-31, 2023
NFL 2023 Season:
Current Record: 9-90-2 +$1,745
NFL Playoffs 2022: 144-91-4 +$11,835
NFL Reg-Season & Playoffs 2022: 144-91-4 +$11,835
CFB Reg-Season & Playoffs: 101-73-2 +$18,888
Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob)
Co Write-Up via @JumpmanJordan – Oddsharks.com & FanDuel Sportsbooks
Photo Credit: Photo by Adam Hunger/AP
Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys
DAL -5.5 (-108) | O/U 52.5 (-115)
SAT 8:15 PM
Lions News & Notes
Now that their 30-year drought without a division title is over, the Lions can set their sights on chasing down a high seed in the NFC playoffs. Detroit can finish second with a win in Dallas and then a victory next week over Minnesota, and a first overall seed is still in play if the 49ers lose one of their last two games.
A big reason the Lions were able to win their division for the first time since 1993 has been their play on the road. Detroit is 7-2 SU and ATS in its last nine road games, with five of those victories and covers coming as an underdog. The Lions have also stepped up in big games, going 8-1 ATS in their last nine games versus teams with winning records and 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five primetime appearances.
Dallas’ vaunted defense has been vulnerable to the running game over the past few weeks, and Detroit’s tandem of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery could do some damage after combining for three rushing touchdowns last week in Minnesota. Quarterback Jared Goff has also cut down on his mistakes of late, going without an interception in four of his last five contests.
The biggest key to a Detroit win and/or cover this week, however, might be how focused the Lions are a week after clinching a playoff berth. That would normally be a huge concern for a franchise not accustomed to success, but the Lions still have plenty to play for down the stretch so it might not be an issue.
- Detroit are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit’s last 7 games.
- Detroit are 10-3 SU in their last 13 games.
- Detroit are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games against Dallas.
Cowboys News & Notes
Dallas hopes a return home to AT&T Stadium will jump-start an offense that produced just 30 combined points in back-to-back losses at Buffalo and Miami. The Cowboys’ attack has been nearly unstoppable this year in Big D, scoring 40-plus in four of its last five games to extend the Boys’ 15-game home winning streak.
The Cowboys have gone OVER the total in nine of their last 12 home games, and six of their last seven victories at AT&T Stadium have come by 20 points or more. Dallas has also been crushing opponents with regularity lately on primetime, going 13-4 ATS in its last 17 on national television.
Dallas should be the more motivated of these two teams, not only with hopes of overtaking Philadelphia for the NFC East title but also to snap a two-game losing streak and prove that it can beat one of the league’s stronger teams.
Dak Prescott has been held under 300 passing yards in each of his last four games, but he could be a strong fantasy play this week at home against Detroit’s struggling secondary. Although the Lions held the Vikings to just 23 points last week, they were shredded for 411 yards through the air, bailing themselves out with four interceptions of Minnesota third-string quarterback Nick Mullens.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas’ last 6 games.
- Dallas are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 8 of Dallas’ last 10 games against Detroit.
- Dallas are 15-0 SU in their last 15 games at home.
Miami Dolphins @ Baltimore Ravens
KC -3.5 (-102) | O/U 46.5 (-110)
SUN 1:00 PM
Dolphins News & Notes
The Ravens are undoubtedly coming off their best win of the season. They were supremely motivated and felt disrespected as a 5.5-point underdog and went on to smash the 49ers in San Francisco by 14 points.
But while the victory adds to a list of incredibly impressive wins on the season for Baltimore, John Harbaugh’s team hasn’t been at its best following elite-level performances.
The pattern started early in the season. In Week 2, they won outright as an underdog in Cincinnati but followed that up the next week by losing to the Colts at home. The next week they went into Cleveland and destroyed the Browns 28-3, but the week after, they suffered a disappointing 17-10 loss to the Steelers.
A few weeks later, they annihilated the Lions 38-6 only to beat the Cardinals by just seven points in their next game. The pattern continued in their next set of matchups where they obliterated the Seahawks by 34 points then lost the following week at home to the Browns.
We should also consider that the Ravens will be at a rest disadvantage after playing on Monday night and having to fly back to the East Coast.
- Miami are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
- Miami are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games.
- Miami are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games against Baltimore.
- Miami are 3-8 SU in their last 11 games against Baltimore.
Ravens News & Notes
While Miami’s offense has gotten headlines for most of the season, their defense is starting to get some shine after having some tremendous success in the second half of the season. Since Week 8, the Dolphins defense ranks first in EPA per play and second in success rate while also ranking first overall in pressure percentage for the season. Uncoincidently, Week 8 is when Jalen Ramsey officially started playing.
The Ravens have plenty of impressive defensive statistics as well, but their performance against the 49ers was slightly misleading when you consider that San Francisco’s offense had 429 total yards off of 6.3 yards per play. They’ve also had a few bad performances at home during the second half of the season when they allowed both the Browns and Rams to score more than 30 points.
Even without my letdown game theory, I think the Dolphins can compete with the Ravens. We witnessed this last season and the year before that when the Dolphins emerged victorious in each matchup.
- Baltimore are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of Baltimore’s last 9 games.
- Baltimore are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore’s last 5 games against Miami.
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings
MIN -1.5 (-102) | O/U 43.5 (-108)
SUN 8:20 PM
Packers News & Notes
Jordan Love and company survived a scare by the Carolina Panthers last weekend to snap a mini-two game slide. The quarterback threw for two touchdowns and ran for another en route to a 33-30 victory. Love is beginning to show Packer fans why the team has chosen him to be the quarterback of the future. In his last six games, he has 15 touchdown passes and just one interception. And he will be an even bigger threat if they can get the often-injured Aaron Jones back to his old self. The running back rushed for a season-high 127 yards last week.
Jordan Love. This team will only go as far as their rookie quarterback takes them. This storied franchise has been blessed with a number of Hall of Fame pivots and Love will need to play like one down the stretch if this team wants to earn a post-season berth. It will also be imperative to get A.J. Dillon going again after a sub-par performance last week in which he had just 12 rushing yards on seven carries. If both he and Jones are effective in the run game, that will open up more options for Love to hurt the Vikings through the air.
- Green Bay are 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay’s last 5 games.
- Green Bay are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games.
- Green Bay are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games against Minnesota.
Vikings News & Notes
It’s been a tough go for Kevin O’Connell’s team in recent weeks having lost four of their last five games. And that’s mostly because of their situation at quarterback. Sure, Nick Mullins threw for over 400 yards last week – but he also had four interceptions as the Vikings fell to the Lions 30-24. Mullins has thrown six picks in his last two games after taking over from Joshua Dobbs earlier this month.
Despite their struggles at quarterback, Justin Jefferson continues to shine bright. He had six catches for 141 yards and a touchdown last week. The Vikings are also dealing with injury issues to both tight end T.J. Hockenson and outside linebacker D.J. Wonnum ahead of this crucial matchup.
Have your best players be your best players. Jefferson was a beast last week and will need to be a factor if this team is to make the playoffs. He has gotten better each week since returning from injury. He has over 140 receiving yards in four of the eight games he has played in this season. But for him to get the ball, they will need to avoid turnovers.
Only the Cleveland Browns have more giveaways this season than the Vikings. If they can do that, then Minnesota could be ringing in the New Year with a victory.
- The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Minnesota’s last 13 games.
- Minnesota are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota’s last 7 games against Green Bay.
- Minnesota are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games at home.
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