Week 18
January 6-7, 2023
NFL 2023 Season:
Current Record: 9-90-2 +$1,745
NFL Playoffs 2022: 144-91-4 +$11,835
NFL Reg-Season & Playoffs 2022: 144-91-4 +$11,835
CFB Reg-Season & Playoffs: 101-73-2 +$18,888
Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob)
Co Write-Up via @JumpmanJordan – Oddsharks.com & FanDuel Sportsbooks
Photo Credit: Photo by Adam Hunger/AP
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens
PIT -3.5 (-110) | O/U 34.5 (-110)
SAT 4:30 PM
Steelers News & Notes
A switch to Mason Rudolph at quarterback has sparked the Steelers’ offense just in the nick of time to keep their playoff hopes alive. After failing to score more than 18 points in any of its previous five games, Pittsburgh has posted 30-plus in Rudolph’s two starts, including Sunday’s 30-23 win at Seattle.
Rudolph was an efficient 18 of 24 for 274 yards against Seattle while George Pickens hauled in 131 receiving yards, but the bigger key to the Steelers’ offensive success was the production from their running backs. Najee Harris had a season-high 122 rushing yards and two touchdowns versus the Seahawks, while Jaylen Warren added 75 yards and a touchdown on the ground.
Pittsburgh’s path to victory obviously gets a lot easier if the Ravens choose to sit Jackson or any of their other top offensive players. But even if Baltimore starts its full offense, the Steelers have shown an ability to contain Jackson and company, holding the Ravens under 20 points in six straight meetings.
Offensively, Rudolph has averaged more than 280 passing yards in his last two starts and could enjoy another big day against a banged-up Ravens secondary. Baltimore was playing without two injured defensive backs last week versus Miami and lost a couple more to injury in the win over the Dolphins.
- Pittsburgh are 13-7 ATS in their last 20 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh’s last 5 games.
- Pittsburgh are 13-7 SU in their last 20 games.
- Pittsburgh are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against Baltimore.
Ravens News & Notes
Baltimore has emerged as the clear favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl after locking up the conference’s top seed with a 56-19 rout of the Dolphins last week. Quarterback Lamar Jackson posted a perfect passer rating in the romp as the Ravens moved to 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last six games, averaging a 16.2-point margin of victory during the streak.
With nothing to play for in Week 18, head coach John Harbaugh told reporters Sunday that he hadn’t yet decided whether he’ll play Jackson and other key starters in the regular season finale against Pittsburgh. With a bye week in the opening round of the playoffs, Harbaugh may opt to play his stars in order to avoid them sitting for two straight weeks before the divisional round.
There’s no hotter team in the NFL right now than the Ravens, who have seen six of their last seven victories come by double digits. Baltimore could be motivated to continue that momentum into the playoffs, and the Ravens should also be eager to spoil the playoff chances of the hated Steelers.
If Jackson doesn’t suit up or has his playing time limited, backup quarterback Tyler Huntley is capable of moving the offense — particularly on the ground, averaging 8.7 yards per carry in 10 games as a starter over the past several seasons.
- Baltimore are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore’s last 7 games.
- Baltimore are 6-0 SU in their last 6 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Baltimore’s last 6 games against Pittsburgh.
Philadelphia Giants @ New York Giants
PHI -5.5 (-110) | O/U 41.5 (-118)
SUN 4:25 PM
Eagles News & Notes
The Eagles blew a 21-6 halftime lead in a stunning 35-31 loss as 12.5-point home favorites to the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday. Jalen Hurts went 18-for-23 with 167 passing yards, three passing touchdowns and one interception in the loss. This marked the fourth time in the team’s last six games that the defense has given up 33 or more points.
With the loss, Philadelphia fell to 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS over its last five games. The Eagles no longer control their own destiny in the NFC East and will need a win on Sunday and a Dallas Cowboys loss to the Washington Commanders to win the division.
Philadelphia has led 10-3 at halftime against Seattle, 20-3 at halftime against New York and 21-6 at halftime against Arizona. The Eagles went on to lose those games against Seattle and Arizona and needed an interception in the endzone to secure their win against the Giants on the final play of the game.
The Eagles’ pass defense isn’t getting the job done over the second half of the season, and inconsistency on offense isn’t helping either. Philadelphia opened the season with a 10-1 SU and 7-2-2 ATS record and clearly has the talent to win this game by a touchdown or more, but with the defense playing so poorly, it’s likely going to take a lot of points to do so this Sunday.
- Philadelphia are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia’s last 9 games.
- Philadelphia are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games.
- Philadelphia are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games against NY Giants.
Giants News & Notes
New York played a competitive game but fell short of pulling off an outright upset in a 26-25 loss to the Los Angeles Rams as 6.5-point home underdogs. Tyrod Taylor went 27-for-41 with 319 passing yards, one passing touchdown and one interception and also led the team in rushing with 40 rushing yards on six carries. Darius Slayton caught four passes for 106 yards and a touchdown.
The Giants have now lost three straight games outright but are 5-1 ATS over their last six games. That run includes an ATS win on Christmas Day as 14-point underdogs in a 33-25 loss to the Eagles in Philadelphia.
Tyrod Taylor has given the Giants a spark on offense over the last two games. New York has scored 25 points in back-to-back losses against Philadelphia and Los Angeles after averaging only 13.2 points per game in its previous 14 games.
The Giants just hung with one of the NFL’s hottest teams last weekend and outscored the Eagles 22-13 after Taylor took over in the second half the week before. New York will be playing with confidence and nothing to lose this Sunday, which could be enough to cover the spread or even win outright at home against this struggling Eagles squad.
- NY Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Giants’ last 7 games.
- NY Giants are 4-10 SU in their last 14 games.
- NY Giants are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games at home.
Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins
BUF -2.5 (-120) | O/U 48.5 (-110)
SUN 8:20 PM
Bills News & Notes
Jordan Love and company survived a scare by the Carolina Panthers last weekend to snap a mini-two game slide. The quarterback threw for two touchdowns and ran for another en route to a 33-30 victory. Love is beginning to show Packer fans why the team has chosen him to be the quarterback of the future. In his last six games, he has 15 touchdown passes and just one interception. And he will be an even bigger threat if they can get the often-injured Aaron Jones back to his old self. The running back rushed for a season-high 127 yards last week.
Jordan Love. This team will only go as far as their rookie quarterback takes them. This storied franchise has been blessed with a number of Hall of Fame pivots and Love will need to play like one down the stretch if this team wants to earn a post-season berth. It will also be imperative to get A.J. Dillon going again after a sub-par performance last week in which he had just 12 rushing yards on seven carries. If both he and Jones are effective in the run game, that will open up more options for Love to hurt the Vikings through the air.
- Buffalo are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Buffalo’s last 12 games.
- Buffalo are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games.
- Buffalo are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games against Miami.
Dolphins News & Notes
It’s been a tough go for Kevin O’Connell’s team in recent weeks having lost four of their last five games. And that’s mostly because of their situation at quarterback. Sure, Nick Mullins threw for over 400 yards last week – but he also had four interceptions as the Vikings fell to the Lions 30-24. Mullins has thrown six picks in his last two games after taking over from Joshua Dobbs earlier this month.
Despite their struggles at quarterback, Justin Jefferson continues to shine bright. He had six catches for 141 yards and a touchdown last week. The Vikings are also dealing with injury issues to both tight end T.J. Hockenson and outside linebacker D.J. Wonnum ahead of this crucial matchup.
Have your best players be your best players. Jefferson was a beast last week and will need to be a factor if this team is to make the playoffs. He has gotten better each week since returning from injury. He has over 140 receiving yards in four of the eight games he has played in this season. But for him to get the ball, they will need to avoid turnovers.
Only the Cleveland Browns have more giveaways this season than the Vikings. If they can do that, then Minnesota could be ringing in the New Year with a victory.
- Miami are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami’s last 6 games.
- Miami are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 8 of Miami’s last 11 games against Buffalo.
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