Wild Card Weekend
January 13-15, 2023
NFL 2023 Season:
Current Record: 9-90-2 +$1,745
NFL Playoffs 2022: 144-91-4 +$11,835
NFL Reg-Season & Playoffs 2022: 144-91-4 +$11,835
CFB Reg-Season & Playoffs: 101-73-2 +$18,888
Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob)
Co Write-Up via @JumpmanJordan – Oddsharks.com & FanDuel Sportsbooks
Photo Credit: Photo by Adam Hunger/AP
Cleveland Browns @ Houston Texans
CLE -2.5 (-104) | O/U 44.5 (-110)
SAT 4:30 PM
Browns News & Notes
Cleveland’s 31-14 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals as a seven-point road underdog in the regular-season finale should not be viewed as anything significant as the team rested starters and had nothing to gain from a win.
The Browns did see their four-game winning streak end and started their fifth different quarterback this year in Jeff Driskel, who will sit behind rejuvenated veteran Joe Flacco in this one.
Flacco lit up the Houston secondary back in Week 16, throwing for 368 yards and three touchdowns, two of which went to wide receiver Amari Cooper, who had 11 catches for a franchise-record 265 yards.
Cleveland went 4-1 SU and ATS in Flacco’s five starts, with the lone road victory during that stretch coming at Houston. The other three wins all came at home, and the offense has averaged 28.6 points in his five games overall.
Ironically, this was supposed to be former Texan Deshaun Watson’s team, but injuries derailed what he was hoping would be his first full season with the Browns. Now it is up to Flacco to do a better job limiting his turnovers with his 10-5 career playoff record, as he has thrown at least one interception in every start, with more picks overall (eight) than Stroud has in 15 games.
- Cleveland are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cleveland’s last 7 games.
- Cleveland are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games.
- Cleveland are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games against Houston.
- Cleveland are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games against Houston.
- The total has gone OVER in 9 of Cleveland’s last 9 games on the road.
Texans News & Notes
It is obviously worth noting that likely NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year C.J. Stroud did not play for Houston in the last meeting because he was recovering from a concussion. The first-year quarterback missed two games but still managed to total 4,108 passing yards with 23 touchdowns and only five interceptions in his rookie campaign.
He is credited as the catalyst behind the team’s remarkable turnaround this season along with head coach DeMeco Ryans, viewed as one of the favorites to win Coach of the Year honors in addition to Cleveland counterpart Kevin Stefanski who won the award in 2020. Stroud led the Texans to a 23-19 win over the Indianapolis Colts in Week 18 with 264 passing yards and two touchdowns, including one on their first offensive play of the game.
It is hard not to make the two quarterbacks the biggest keys to victory for each team. However, Houston’s defense needs to be the difference here, especially after Flacco torched the unit in the earlier meeting.
The Texans have gone 6-2 SU at home and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as underdogs, so it is also up to Ryans to get his players extra motivated for this rematch and outcoach Stefanski this time around. If he can do that, then Houston will have an excellent chance to pull off the small upset and advance.
- Houston are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston’s last 8 games.
- Houston are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Houston’s last 13 games against Cleveland.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston’s last 5 games at home.
- Houston are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games when playing at home against Cleveland.
Miami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs
KC -4.5 (-110) | O/U 44 (-105)
SAT 8:00 PM
Dolphins News & Notes
The Eagles blew a 21-6 halftime lead in a stunning 35-31 loss as 12.5-point home favorites to the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday. Jalen Hurts went 18-for-23 with 167 passing yards, three passing touchdowns and one interception in the loss. This marked the fourth time in the team’s last six games that the defense has given up 33 or more points.
With the loss, Philadelphia fell to 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS over its last five games. The Eagles no longer control their own destiny in the NFC East and will need a win on Sunday and a Dallas Cowboys loss to the Washington Commanders to win the division.
Philadelphia has led 10-3 at halftime against Seattle, 20-3 at halftime against New York and 21-6 at halftime against Arizona. The Eagles went on to lose those games against Seattle and Arizona and needed an interception in the endzone to secure their win against the Giants on the final play of the game.
The Eagles’ pass defense isn’t getting the job done over the second half of the season, and inconsistency on offense isn’t helping either. Philadelphia opened the season with a 10-1 SU and 7-2-2 ATS record and clearly has the talent to win this game by a touchdown or more, but with the defense playing so poorly, it’s likely going to take a lot of points to do so this Sunday.
- Miami are 13-7 ATS in their last 20 games.
- Miami are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games against Kansas City.
- The total has gone OVER in 12 of Miami’s last 16 games on the road.
- Miami are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on the road against Kansas City.
- Miami are 2-7 SU in their last 9 games played in January.
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami’s last 5 games played on a Saturday.
Chiefs News & Notes
New York played a competitive game but fell short of pulling off an outright upset in a 26-25 loss to the Los Angeles Rams as 6.5-point home underdogs. Tyrod Taylor went 27-for-41 with 319 passing yards, one passing touchdown and one interception and also led the team in rushing with 40 rushing yards on six carries. Darius Slayton caught four passes for 106 yards and a touchdown.
The Giants have now lost three straight games outright but are 5-1 ATS over their last six games. That run includes an ATS win on Christmas Day as 14-point underdogs in a 33-25 loss to the Eagles in Philadelphia.
Tyrod Taylor has given the Giants a spark on offense over the last two games. New York has scored 25 points in back-to-back losses against Philadelphia and Los Angeles after averaging only 13.2 points per game in its previous 14 games.
The Giants just hung with one of the NFL’s hottest teams last weekend and outscored the Eagles 22-13 after Taylor took over in the second half the week before. New York will be playing with confidence and nothing to lose this Sunday, which could be enough to cover the spread or even win outright at home against this struggling Eagles squad.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City’s last 5 games.
- Kansas City are 14-6 SU in their last 20 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City’s last 5 games at home.
- Kansas City are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games when playing at home against Miami.
- Kansas City are 15-3 SU in their last 18 games against an opponent in the AFC.
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City’s last 6 games played in January.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills
BUF -9.5 (-115) | O/U 33.5 (-115)
SUN 1:00 PM
Steelers News & Notes
Pittsburgh picked up a 17-10 win against the Baltimore Ravens as 3-point road favorites on Saturday and got help from Tennessee defeating Jacksonville on Sunday to land the final wild card spot in the AFC. Mason Rudolph went 18-for-20 with 152 passing yards and a touchdown in the win. Najee Harris led the way in the backfield with 26 carries, 112 rushing yards and a touchdown.
The Steelers ended their regular season on an improbable 3-0 SU and ATS run after going 0-3 SU and ATS in their previous three games with ugly losses to the Arizona Cardinals and New England Patriots. Rudolph has taken over the starting job with 716 passing yards, three touchdown passes and no interceptions during this three-game win streak.
The Steelers have found new life on offense with Mason Rudolph under center. Pittsburgh went 1-4 SU and ATS and averaged only 13.4 points per game in the last five games that Kenny Pickett started. In Rudolph’s three starts, the Steelers are averaging 27 points per game.
Rudolph will get his toughest test yet facing this red-hot Bills team on the road in a playoff game. Pittsburgh ranks sixth in the NFL in scoring defense allowing only 19.1 points per game, so if the defense does its part and keeps Buffalo’s offense in check, Rudolph’s performance could determine whether or not the Steelers cover the spread or pull off a big upset.
- Pittsburgh are 13-7 ATS & SU in their last 20 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh’s last 5 games.
- Pittsburgh are 11-4 ATS & SU in their last 15 games against Buffalo.
- The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Pittsburgh’s last 9 games on the road.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh’s last 5 games when playing on the road against Buffalo.
- Pittsburgh are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played in January.
Bills News & Notes
The Bills completed an improbable run of their own on Sunday night, clinching the AFC East division title and the No. 2 seed in the postseason with a 21-14 road win over the Miami Dolphins as 2.5-point road favorites. Josh Allen went 30-for-38 with 359 passing yards, two passing touchdowns and two interceptions against the Dolphins. He also led the team in rushing with 15 carries and 67 rushing yards.
Buffalo’s chances of making the postseason were looking bleak when the team finished November on a 3-5 SU and 1-7 ATS skid to enter December with a 6-6 SU and 4-8 ATS record. But the team hasn’t lost since then with a 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS record that includes road wins over Kansas City and Miami and a home win against Dallas.
Buffalo’s win against Miami displayed both the good and bad in Josh Allen, who put up dominant numbers with 359 passing yards and 67 rushing yards but also threw two interceptions. Allen’s 18 interceptions this season finished second only to the 19 that Washington’s Sam Howell threw.
The Bills defense ranks ninth in the NFL in total defense allowing 307.2 points per game, and fourth in scoring defense allowing 18.3 points per game this season. Buffalo’s clear edge in talent and home field advantage should be enough to lean on en route to a win, but to cover the largest spread on the board in the wild card round, Allen may need to limit his turnovers.
- Buffalo are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Buffalo’s last 10 games.
- Buffalo are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Buffalo’s last 8 games against Pittsburgh.
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Buffalo’s last 7 games at home.
- Buffalo are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games when playing as the favourite.
Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys
DAL -7 (-110) | O/U 50.5 (-114)
SUN 1:00 PM
Packers News & Notes
Green Bay wrapped up its regular season with a 17-9 win at home over the Chicago Bears as 2.5-point favorites on Sunday to clinch the NFC’s final wild card spot. Jordan Love went 27-for-32 with 316 passing yards and two passing touchdowns in the win. Aaron Jones led the way on the ground with 111 rushing yards on 22 carries.
The Packers shook off an underwhelming 3-6 SU and 4-5 ATS start to the season to lock up a playoff spot with a 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS record down the stretch. Jordan Love played great during that eight game run with an 18-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Jordan Love and Aaron Jones are both in top form at the right time. Love has thrown at least two touchdown passes with no interceptions in four straight games. Jones has recorded at least 20 carries and 111 rushing yards in all three games of Green Bay’s current 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS run.
These trends will need to continue on Sunday for the Packers to cover the spread or stay within striking distance of an outright upset. The Cowboys are a well-oiled machine on offense at home, so Green Bay’s best shot at keeping this game competitive is to keep up with a high-scoring performance of its own.
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of Green Bay’s last 7 games.
- Green Bay are 6-2 SU in their last 8 games.
- Green Bay are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against Dallas.
- Green Bay are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games against Dallas.
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay’s last 5 games on the road.
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay’s last 5 games when playing on the road against Dallas.
- Green Bay are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games against an opponent in the NFC.
- Green Bay are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against an opponent in the NFC East division.
- Green Bay are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games played on a Sunday.
Cowboys News & Notes
The Cowboys rolled to a 38-10 blowout win against the Washington Commanders on Sunday as 13-point road favorites to secure the NFC East division title and the No. 2 seed in the NFC. Dak Prescott went 31-for-36 with 279 passing yards, four touchdown passes and one interception. CeeDee Lamb hauled in 13 catches for 98 receiving yards and two touchdowns.
Dallas is 10-0 SU and 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games as a favorite, winning those games by an average margin of victory of 20.6 points per game. The Cowboys enter the postseason with a 4-12 SU and ATS record in their last 16 playoff games.
The Cowboys have looked flat-out dominant in multiple games this season including Sunday’s blowout over the lowly Commanders. But prior to that win, Dallas went 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS with back-to-back road losses to the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins followed by a controversial win 20-19 win at home over the Detroit Lions.
Getting off to a hot start would go a long way for Dallas in this one. The Cowboys likely have enough talent to win this one at home regardless of the game script, but to keep confidence high and to cover this fairly large spread, an early lead would pave a smoother path.
- Dallas are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas’ last 5 games.
- Dallas are 7-2 SU in their last 9 games.
- Dallas are 16-0 SU in their last 16 games at home.
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas’ last 5 games when playing at home against Green Bay.
- Dallas are 7-0 SU in their last 7 games against an opponent in the NFC.
- The total has gone OVER in 11 of Dallas’ last 15 games against an opponent in the NFC North division.
- Dallas are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games played in January.
- Dallas are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games played on a Sunday.
Los Angeles Rams @ Detroit Lions
DET -3 (-115) | O/U 51.5 (-110)
SUN 8:00 PM
Rams News & Notes
Not even playing without Matthew Stafford, Aaron Donald, Cooper Kupp, Kyren Williams and several other starters could slow down the red-hot Rams last week in their regular-season finale. Los Angeles edged the 49ers 21-20 for their seventh win in eight games after a 3-6 start to the campaign — with the lone defeat during that stretch coming in overtime at Baltimore.
As much credit as the Rams deserve for turning their season around, however, some of their success could be explained by a soft schedule down the stretch. LA was favored in six of those eight games, and each of its last four victories came by a single possession. It’ll be interesting to see if the Rams can continue their run as a road underdog, a role in which LA has won just two of its last 13 outings.
Not much was expected this season of a Rams squad that appeared to be rebuilding, while Detroit entered the year as the favorite to win the NFC North. That could help LA be the looser and more relaxed team, especially with the host Lions looking to snap the franchise’s nine-game losing streak in postseason play.
LA also has Stafford, Kupp, Donald and several other starters remaining from its 2022 Super Bowl championship squad, and head coach Sean McVay should know the best way to defend Lions quarterback Jared Goff from their time together from 2017-20.
- LA Rams are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Rams’ last 7 games.
- LA Rams are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Rams’ last 5 games on the road.
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Rams’ last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit.
- LA Rams are 6-0 SU in their last 6 games against an opponent in the NFC.
- LA Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against an opponent in the NFC North division.
- LA Rams are 9-4 SU in their last 13 games played in January.
Detroit News & Notes
Detroit also enters the postseason on a roll, covering the spread for the fifth time in six games last week with a 30-20 win over the Vikings. That victory may have come at a steep price, however, as star tight end Sam LaPorta left the game in the first half with a knee injury.
Head coach Dan Campbell told reporters Monday that the status of LaPorta, who set a rookie record for receptions by a tight end this season and caught 10 touchdown passes, should be more certain by Wednesday. If he can’t suit up, it’d be a huge hit to an offense that has helped Detroit go OVER the total in seven of its last nine games overall and four straight at home.
Detroit’s balance on offense (fifth in rushing yards, second in passing yards) will be tough to stop for an LA defense that ranked 20th this season in total yards allowed. The Lions have been especially lethal on the fast turf of Ford Field, where they’ve put up 30-plus in eight of their last 11 games.
Detroit also matches up well with the Rams on the other side of the ball, thanks to a run defense that allowed a paltry 3.7 yards per carry this season. Williams was a huge key to LA’s offensive success down the stretch of the campaign, finishing the year with 1,144 rushing yards.
- Detroit are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 7 of Detroit’s last 9 games.
- Detroit are 14-5 SU in their last 19 games.
- Detroit are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games at home.
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit’s last 6 games when playing at home against LA Rams.
- Detroit are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against an opponent in the NFC.
- Detroit are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games against an opponent in the NFC West division.
- Detroit are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played in January.
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit’s last 7 games played on a Sunday.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
PHI -3 (-105) | O/U 51.5 (-110)
MON 8:00 PM
Eagles News & Notes
The Eagles have struggled on both sides of the ball during a dismal late-season slide. A reliable bet during a 10-1 SU start to the season, the Eagles have seen their offense take a huge step during their current 1-5 SU slide. Philly has averaged just 20.5 points per game over their past six outings after racking up 28.1 points per game during their 10-1 start.
The Eagles have also surrendered 31.2 points per game during their current swoon, and allowed 25.2 points per game overall, the most of any playoff-bound team. Injuries have not helped this team, which reached the Super Bowl last year.
Already struggling to overcome a stretch of four road games with no TD passes, Jalen Hurts must now contend with a dislocated finger suffered in Sunday’s 27-10 loss to the Giants, but is expected to ready for Monday night.
Jalen Hurts’ latest injury could not have come at a worse time. Already struggling with accuracy while tossing five total picks over the past four games, the finger injury on his throwing hand is reportedly not serious. But with receivers AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith both nursing injuries, and top rusher on the shelf with an unidentified illness, the Eagles are likely to see both their defense and offensive depth tested on Monday night.
If either Brown or Smith are unable to go, opportunity could knock for veteran Julio Jones, who has been used sparingly since joining the team midseason, but busted out for two TD catches versus Arizona two weeks ago.
- Philadelphia are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games.
- Philadelphia are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games.
- Philadelphia are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games against Tampa Bay.
- The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Philadelphia’s last 8 games on the road.
- Philadelphia are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games against an opponent in the NFC.
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia’s last 7 games against an opponent in the NFC South division.
- Philadelphia are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games played in January.
- Philadelphia are 13-6 SU in their last 19 games played on a Monday.
Bucs News & Notes
The Buccaneers did what they had to do to get past the Carolina Panthers in Sunday’s 9-0 win, but the team’s struggles to generate offense over the past two weeks remains a cause for concern. Already hampered by a rib injury suffered two weeks ago, quarterback Baker Mayfield saw his injury woes deepen with an ankle injury suffered in Sunday’s win over Carolina that left him limping. Always a gamer, Mayfield stayed in the contest, but saw a run of 11 games with at least one TD pass end while going just 2-for-32 for 137 yards.
The Bucs have remained a steady defensive force during their 5-1 run, allowing just 16.3 points per game, fueling a 4-1 ATS run. However, they have allowed 30.5 points per game while losing SU and ATS in their past two playoff home dates.
Baker Mayfield was blunt in the assessment of his injuries when asked on Sunday where he hurt the most responding “a little bit all over”. But it looks like it will take more than rib and ankle injuries to keep the former first overall pick from seeing his first playoff action in three years. The question is whether the Buccaneers offensive line can adequately protect a hobbled Mayfield from a Philly pass defense that recorded 43 sacks this season, but also allowed ranked 31st in TD passes allowed, with 43. All that said, it would not be surprising to see Mayfield and the Bucs lean more on their ground game on Monday night.
Rachaad White has provided the spark in the backfield this season while rushing for 990 yards including 75 yards on Sunday. However, the Bucs have managed to score just one rushing TD over the past four weeks.
- Tampa Bay are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Tampa Bay’s last 18 games.
- Tampa Bay are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tampa Bay’s last 7 games at home.
- Tampa Bay are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games against an opponent in the NFC.
- The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tampa Bay’s last 7 games against an opponent in the NFC.
- Tampa Bay are 10-3 SU in their last 13 games played in January.
- Tampa Bay are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games played on a Monday.
- Tampa Bay are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing as the underdog.
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