Championship Sunday
January 28, 2024
NFL 2023 Season:
Current Record: 9-90-2 +$1,745
NFL Playoffs 2023: 144-91-4 +$11,835
NFL Reg-Season & Playoffs 2022: 144-91-4 +$11,835
CFB Reg-Season & Playoffs: 101-73-2 +$18,888
Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob)
Co Write-Up via @JumpmanJordan – Oddsharks.com & FanDuel Sportsbooks
Photo Credit: David Eulitt/Getty Images
Kansas City Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens
BAL -4.5 (-105) | O/U 44.5 (-120)
3:00 PM
Chiefs News & Notes
The Chiefs took care of business on the road in a 27-24 upset win against the Buffalo Bills as 2.5-point underdogs on Sunday night. Patrick Mahomes went 17-for-23 with 215 passing yards and two touchdown passes. Travis Kelce caught both of those scoring passes and finished the game with five catches for 75 receiving yards. Isiah Pacheco added 97 rushing yards and a touchdown on 15 carries.
Kansas City is now 4-0 SU and ATS over its last four games after going 1-3 SU and 0-3-1 ATS in its previous four games. The Chiefs are 12-2 SU and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 postseason games.
After struggling with inconsistency on offense throughout the regular season, the Chiefs have finally been putting things together. They are averaging 26.5 points per game this postseason and have scored at least 25 points in four of the last five games that Patrick Mahomes has started.
Producing on offense will be important again this weekend against a stingy Baltimore defense. But, the key to a road upset will be how well the Chiefs can contain the run. Kansas City ranked second best in the NFL in both total defense and scoring defense during the regular season, but the 113.2 rushing yards the team allowed per game ranked 18th in the NFL. The run defense will need to step up to give the Chiefs a shot in this one.
- Kansas City are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City’s last 5 games.
- Kansas City are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games.
- Kansas City are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games against Baltimore.
- Kansas City are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games against Baltimore.
- Kansas City are 11-2 SU in their last 13 games on the road.
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City’s last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore.
- Kansas City are 17-3 SU in their last 20 games against an opponent in the AFC.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City’s last 6 games against an opponent in the AFC North division.
- Kansas City are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played in January.
Ravens News & Notes
Baltimore shook off a slow start to outscore the Houston Texans 24-0 in the second half, en route to a 34-10 blowout win on Saturday as 10-point home favorites. Lamar Jackson went 16-for-22 with 152 passing yards and two passing touchdowns while also leading the way on the ground with 100 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns on 11 carries.
The Ravens are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in the last seven games that Lamar Jackson has started, winning those games by an average margin of victory of 17.3 points per game. Star tight end Mark Andrews is listed as questionable to return this Sunday from an ankle injury that has kept him out of action since November 11.
The Ravens are red-hot on both offense and defense. They’ve gone 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games not including their regular season finale with starters resting. Over that seven-game stretch, the offense has averaged 33.9 points per game and the defense has allowed just 16.6 points per game.
Baltimore’s all-around dominance means that the Ravens can win in a defensive battle or a shootout depending on what the game script dictates. Patrick Mahomes is a generational talent that isn’t likely to go down in the AFC Championship Game without a fight, so this game may wind up coming down to Lamar Jackson’s ability to out-duel him at home.
- Baltimore are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
- Baltimore are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore’s last 5 games against Kansas City.
- Baltimore are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games at home.
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore’s last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City.
- Baltimore are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against an opponent in the AFC conference.
- Baltimore are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games against an opponent in the AFC West division.
- The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Baltimore’s last 13 games played in January.
- Baltimore are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games played on a Sunday.
Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers
SF -7.5 (-102) | O/U 52.5 (-110)
SUN 6:30 PM
Lions News & Notes
The Lions have taken a quantum leap towards rewriting a decades-old losing narrative during their current playoff surge. With Sunday’s victory, the team has now tallied SU wins in six of seven outings, with their lone defeat over that stretch coming as the result of a questionable officiating call. Quarterback Jared Goff has impressed during the Lion’s win streak, connecting on five total touchdown passes while completing 75.3% of pass attempts, and twice topping 10 yards per attempt. But in addition to overcoming a middling 3-3 SU run on the road, the Lions must also snap an epic 12-game SU road losing streak against the 49ers that started in 1977 if they are to make their Super Bowl debut next month.
The Lions were forced to ward off late-game rallies in their playoff victories over Los Angeles and Tampa Bay. Indeed, the Rams and the Bucs offenses both put up big numbers against Detroit, each topping 400 total yards. However, the Lions have made the most out of their chances, both on the ground and in the air.
Jahmyr Gibbs has run for scores in each of the past two weeks while compiling 99 total rushing yards, and has now recorded seven rushing TDs over the past seven games. Amon-Ra St. Brown has remained Goff’s favorite downfield target while averaging 93.5 receiving yards and one scoring catch in playoff action, and has topped 100 receiving yards in four of his past six games.
- Detroit are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 8 of Detroit’s last 11 games.
- Detroit are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games.
- Detroit are 1-11 SU in their last 12 games against San Francisco.
- Detroit are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games on the road.
- Detroit are 0-10 SU in their last 10 games when playing on the road against San Francisco.
- Detroit are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against an opponent in the NFC.
- Detroit are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games against an opponent in the NFC West division.
- The total has gone OVER in 7 of Detroit’s last 9 games played on a Sunday.
49ers News & Notes
The 49ers were lucky to escape with a slim 24-21 win over the Packers in NFC Divisional Round action. The Niners needed to overcome three Green Bay leads to finally secure the win with a Christian McCaffrey touchdown in the dying seconds and improve to 2-2 SU over their past four games overall, and just 3-3 SU in their past six on home turf. After failing to cover as 10.5-point favorites in Saturday’s win, the 49ers now ride a six-game ATS losing streak at home. However, this team remains a playoff force on home turf, winning six straight and going 5-1 ATS since 2012 while allowing just 19.5 points per game over that stretch.
The 49ers needed a pair of fourth-quarter scores to claim victory over the Packers on Saturday night. That marks somewhat of a turnaround for this squad, which had failed to score in third-quarter action while averaging just seven points after recess over their previous three games.
However, a lack of second-half production doomed this team in each of the past two editions of the NFC Championship, with San Francisco scoring just seven total points after halftime while falling to Philadelphia and Los Angeles. Brock Purdy also needs to be better. The Niners pivot connected on one scoring pass while compiling 252 passing yards on Saturday night. However, he also managed to complete fewer than 60% of pass attempts for the second time in three games, and has thrown for just three total TDs over the past three games.
- San Francisco are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games.
- San Francisco are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games.
- San Francisco are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games at home.
- San Francisco are 10-0 SU in their last 10 games when playing at home against Detroit.
- San Francisco are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games against an opponent in the NFC.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco’s last 5 games against an opponent in the NFC North division.
- San Francisco are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games played in January.
- The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Francisco’s last 10 games played on a Sunday when at home.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions
DET -6.5 (-110) | O/U 48.5 (-104)
SUN 3:00 PM
Bucs News & Notes
Tampa Bay jumped out to a 10-0 lead in the first quarter and never looked back in a 32-9 blowout win at home over the Eagles as 3-point underdogs on Monday night. Baker Mayfield went 22-for-36 with 337 passing yards, three passing touchdowns and no interceptions in the win. Cade Otton led the team in catches with eight and receiving yards with 89.
The Buccaneers are now 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games with four outright upsets during that stretch. Tampa Bay has scored 29 or more points in four of the team’s last six games.
Tampa Bay finished the regular season ranked seventh best in the NFL in scoring defense allowing only 19.1 points per game, and that stingy defense was on display in the team’s dominant win against the Eagles. The Buccaneers have scored 21 points or more in eight games this season and went 7-1 SU and ATS in those games.
The Lions ranked third in the NFL in total offense this season averaging 394.8 total yards per game and fifth in scoring with 27.1 points per game. Tampa Bay’s defense should be able to prevent this high-powered Detroit offense from running away with Sunday’s game, but Baker Mayfield and the offense will need to produce to give the Buccaneers a shot in this one.
- Tampa Bay are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay’s last 5 games.
- Tampa Bay are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games.
- Tampa Bay are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games against Detroit.
- Tampa Bay are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games on the road.
- Tampa Bay are 7-2 SU in their last 9 games when playing on the road against Detroit.
- Tampa Bay are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games against an opponent in the NFC.
Lions News & Notes
The Lions won their first playoff game since 1991 with their 24-23 victory against the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday as 3-point home favorites. Jared Goff went 22-for-27 with 277 passing yards, one passing touchdown and no interceptions. Amon-Ra St. Brown hauled in seven catches for 110 receiving yards.
Detroit had a 4-0 ATS win streak snapped on Sunday but are still 4-1 SU and ATS over the team’s last five games. The Lions are 15-6 SU and ATS in their last 21 home games including a 10-2 SU and 8-4 ATS run in their last 12 games at home.
One of the main reasons that the Lions have been so successful this season is their balance on offense. Detroit ranked second best in the NFL in passing with 258.9 passing yards per game during the regular season and fifth best in rushing with 135.9 rushing yards per game.
Tampa Bay had a top-five rushing defense allowing only 95.3 rushing yards per game during the regular season, but also finished with a bottom-five pass defense allowing 248.9 passing yards per game. Jared Goff’s arm and home field advantage could be enough to lead the Lions to a win, but establishing the run against this tough rushing defense may be the path to covering the spread.
- Detroit are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 7 of Detroit’s last 10 games.
- Detroit are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit’s last 6 games against Tampa Bay.
- Detroit are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games at home.
- Detroit are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay.
- Detroit are 15-5 SU in their last 20 games against an opponent in the NFC.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills
BUF -2.5 (-122) | O/U 45.5 (-110)
SUN 6:30 PM
Chiefs News & Notes
Green Bay wrapped up its regular season with a 17-9 win at home over the Chicago Bears as 2.5-point favorites on Sunday to clinch the NFC’s final wild card spot. Jordan Love went 27-for-32 with 316 passing yards and two passing touchdowns in the win. Aaron Jones led the way on the ground with 111 rushing yards on 22 carries.
The Packers shook off an underwhelming 3-6 SU and 4-5 ATS start to the season to lock up a playoff spot with a 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS record down the stretch. Jordan Love played great during that eight game run with an 18-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Jordan Love and Aaron Jones are both in top form at the right time. Love has thrown at least two touchdown passes with no interceptions in four straight games. Jones has recorded at least 20 carries and 111 rushing yards in all three games of Green Bay’s current 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS run.
These trends will need to continue on Sunday for the Packers to cover the spread or stay within striking distance of an outright upset. The Cowboys are a well-oiled machine on offense at home, so Green Bay’s best shot at keeping this game competitive is to keep up with a high-scoring performance of its own.
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City’s last 6 games.
- Kansas City are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games.
- Kansas City are 10-2 SU in their last 12 games on the road.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City’s last 5 games when playing on the road against Buffalo.
- Kansas City are 16-3 SU in their last 19 games against an opponent in the American Football Conference conference.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City’s last 6 games against an opponent in the American Football Conference East division.
- Kansas City are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played in January.
Bills News & Notes
The Cowboys rolled to a 38-10 blowout win against the Washington Commanders on Sunday as 13-point road favorites to secure the NFC East division title and the No. 2 seed in the NFC. Dak Prescott went 31-for-36 with 279 passing yards, four touchdown passes and one interception. CeeDee Lamb hauled in 13 catches for 98 receiving yards and two touchdowns.
Dallas is 10-0 SU and 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games as a favorite, winning those games by an average margin of victory of 20.6 points per game. The Cowboys enter the postseason with a 4-12 SU and ATS record in their last 16 playoff games.
The Cowboys have looked flat-out dominant in multiple games this season including Sunday’s blowout over the lowly Commanders. But prior to that win, Dallas went 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS with back-to-back road losses to the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins followed by a controversial win 20-19 win at home over the Detroit Lions.
Getting off to a hot start would go a long way for Dallas in this one. The Cowboys likely have enough talent to win this one at home regardless of the game script, but to keep confidence high and to cover this fairly large spread, an early lead would pave a smoother path.
- Buffalo are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games.
- Buffalo are 6-0 SU in their last 6 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Buffalo’s last 20 games against Kansas City.
- Buffalo are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games at home.
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo’s last 6 games when playing at home against Kansas City.
- Buffalo are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games against an opponent in the AFC.
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of Buffalo’s last 9 games against an opponent in the AFC West division.
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