Divisional Round Weekend
January 20-21, 2024
NFL 2023 Season:
Current Record: 9-90-2 +$1,745
NFL Playoffs 2023: 144-91-4 +$11,835
NFL Reg-Season & Playoffs 2022: 144-91-4 +$11,835
CFB Reg-Season & Playoffs: 101-73-2 +$18,888
Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob)
Co Write-Up via @JumpmanJordan – Oddsharks.com & FanDuel Sportsbooks
Photo Credit: David Eulitt/Getty Images
Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens
BAL -9.5 (-110) | O/U 43.5 (-110)
SAT 4:30 PM
Texans News & Notes
Houston is coming off an impressive 45-14 rout of the Cleveland Browns as a two-point home underdog last Saturday, with rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud throwing for three touchdowns in the first half and the defense picking off opposing signal caller Joe Flacco twice for scores in the third quarter.
Stroud looked extremely poised in his postseason debut and played like an experienced veteran, becoming the youngest quarterback ever to win a playoff game. He threw for 236 of his 274 yards in the first two quarters and got to rest for the final nine minutes of the game, as he was relieved by backup Davis Mills.
Houston has played footloose and fancy free for much of the season, winning the AFC South when the Jacksonville Jaguars and Indianapolis Colts faltered down the stretch. The Texans have the favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year in Stroud and a leading contender for Coach of the Year in DeMeco Ryans, and both will be put to the test again here.
The biggest key will be how Stroud performs against the league’s top defense, one that limited him to 242 passing yards – and no touchdowns – and sacked him five times. Houston has upset each AFC North team as an underdog this season except Baltimore.
- Houston are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Houston’s last 15 games.
- Houston are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games.
- Houston are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games against Baltimore.
- Houston are 2-11 SU in their last 13 games against Baltimore.
- Houston are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games on the road.
- Houston are 0-7 SU in their last 7 games when playing on the road against Baltimore.
Ravens News & Notes
Baltimore will look to bounce back from a meaningless 17-10 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers in the regular-season finale, which got the team’s opponent into the postseason as a three-point road favorite. The Ravens saw their six-game winning streak come to an end, also taking 10 of 11 prior to the setback.
However, they rested NFL MVP favorite Lamar Jackson and some other key players like Hill and rookie wide receiver Zay Flowers, who led them with 77 receptions for 858 yards during the regular season. Baltimore may get another important offensive weapon back as well in tight end Mark Andrews (ankle).
Baltimore is just 1-3 SU and ATS in the playoffs with Jackson under center, as he has gotten sacked 19 times in those four games. If he is going to reverse that trend and get back to the .500 mark en route to making his first-ever Super Bowl appearance, then he must stay upright and make positive plays like he did during the regular season.
That said, Jackson was sacked four times in the Week 1 meeting and threw an interception too, so the Ravens were still able to win fairly easily with a sub-par performance from him. The Baltimore defense was the difference then and can be again in slowing down Stroud.
- Baltimore are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games.
- Baltimore are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore’s last 6 games against Houston.
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore’s last 5 games at home.
- Baltimore are 7-0 SU in their last 7 games when playing at home against Houston.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore’s last 5 games against an opponent in the AFC.
- Baltimore are 0-7 SU in their last 7 games played in January.
Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers
SF -9.5 (-112) | O/U 50.5 (-105)
SAT 8:30 PM
Packers News & Notes
There may be no hotter quarterback remaining on the playoff field than Jordan Love, who has tossed 21 touchdown passes and just one interception over his last nine games. Love remained on fire last week against the Cowboys, throwing three TD strikes and completing more than 75% of his passes to help the Packers to their fourth straight outright victory as an underdog.
With Love in career-best form, it’s no surprise to see the Packers have gone OVER the total in seven of their last eight overall and six straight on the road. Green Bay has done the bulk of its offensive damage lately in the first half, outscoring opponents 80-26 in the opening 30 minutes during its four-game winning streak.
Love’s play has been pivotal to Green Bay’s late-season surge, but he’s hardly the only player on offense producing at a high level these days. Running back Aaron Jones has gained at least 111 yards on the ground in four straight games — including 118 in last week’s three-touchdown effort against the Cowboys — while Green Bay’s offensive line has allowed just two sacks in its last four games.
- Green Bay are 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 7 of Green Bay’s last 8 games.
- Green Bay are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games.
- Green Bay are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games against San Francisco.
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of Green Bay’s last 6 games on the road.
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of Green Bay’s last 8 games when playing on the road against San Francisco.
- Green Bay are 6-2 SU in their last 8 games against an opponent in the NFC.
49ers News & Notes
After injuries to Brock Purdy and other key players derailed their Super Bowl hopes last season, San Francisco enters the playoffs relatively healthy and coming off a bye week to nurse any nagging ailments. The Niners even hope to have key run-stopper Arik Armstead back in the lineup after the defensive tackle missed San Fran’s final five regular-season games with foot and knee injuries.
One of the Niners’ few causes for concern going into the playoffs might be their recent play at home, where San Francisco is just 2-3 SU and 0-5 ATS in its last five games. However, it’s worth noting that two of the 49ers’ non-covers came in games they won by double digits and one of their outright losses was a meaningless 21-20 decision in Week 18 against the Rams.
San Francisco has been a fast starter all year, scoring 76 points on its opening drives — the most of any team in the NFL in more than two decades. Another strong start is imperative for the 49ers against the surging Packers, especially considering that San Francisco is 0-3 SU this season when trailing at halftime.
Playing with a lead would also help the 49ers leverage their biggest advantage in this matchup: Christian McCaffrey and the running game. San Francisco led the NFL with 74 run plays of 10 yards or more this year, while Green Bay has struggled to stop the run all season.
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco’s last 7 games.
- San Francisco are 7-2 SU in their last 9 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 10 of San Francisco’s last 14 games against Green Bay.
- San Francisco are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games at home.
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Francisco’s last 8 games when playing at home against Green Bay.
- San Francisco are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games against an opponent in the National Football Conference conference.
- San Francisco are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games played in January.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions
DET -6.5 (-110) | O/U 48.5 (-104)
SUN 3:00 PM
Bucs News & Notes
Tampa Bay jumped out to a 10-0 lead in the first quarter and never looked back in a 32-9 blowout win at home over the Eagles as 3-point underdogs on Monday night. Baker Mayfield went 22-for-36 with 337 passing yards, three passing touchdowns and no interceptions in the win. Cade Otton led the team in catches with eight and receiving yards with 89.
The Buccaneers are now 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games with four outright upsets during that stretch. Tampa Bay has scored 29 or more points in four of the team’s last six games.
Tampa Bay finished the regular season ranked seventh best in the NFL in scoring defense allowing only 19.1 points per game, and that stingy defense was on display in the team’s dominant win against the Eagles. The Buccaneers have scored 21 points or more in eight games this season and went 7-1 SU and ATS in those games.
The Lions ranked third in the NFL in total offense this season averaging 394.8 total yards per game and fifth in scoring with 27.1 points per game. Tampa Bay’s defense should be able to prevent this high-powered Detroit offense from running away with Sunday’s game, but Baker Mayfield and the offense will need to produce to give the Buccaneers a shot in this one.
- Tampa Bay are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay’s last 5 games.
- Tampa Bay are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games.
- Tampa Bay are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games against Detroit.
- Tampa Bay are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games on the road.
- Tampa Bay are 7-2 SU in their last 9 games when playing on the road against Detroit.
- Tampa Bay are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games against an opponent in the NFC.
Lions News & Notes
The Lions won their first playoff game since 1991 with their 24-23 victory against the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday as 3-point home favorites. Jared Goff went 22-for-27 with 277 passing yards, one passing touchdown and no interceptions. Amon-Ra St. Brown hauled in seven catches for 110 receiving yards.
Detroit had a 4-0 ATS win streak snapped on Sunday but are still 4-1 SU and ATS over the team’s last five games. The Lions are 15-6 SU and ATS in their last 21 home games including a 10-2 SU and 8-4 ATS run in their last 12 games at home.
One of the main reasons that the Lions have been so successful this season is their balance on offense. Detroit ranked second best in the NFL in passing with 258.9 passing yards per game during the regular season and fifth best in rushing with 135.9 rushing yards per game.
Tampa Bay had a top-five rushing defense allowing only 95.3 rushing yards per game during the regular season, but also finished with a bottom-five pass defense allowing 248.9 passing yards per game. Jared Goff’s arm and home field advantage could be enough to lead the Lions to a win, but establishing the run against this tough rushing defense may be the path to covering the spread.
- Detroit are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 7 of Detroit’s last 10 games.
- Detroit are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit’s last 6 games against Tampa Bay.
- Detroit are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games at home.
- Detroit are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay.
- Detroit are 15-5 SU in their last 20 games against an opponent in the NFC.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills
BUF -2.5 (-122) | O/U 45.5 (-110)
SUN 6:30 PM
Chiefs News & Notes
Green Bay wrapped up its regular season with a 17-9 win at home over the Chicago Bears as 2.5-point favorites on Sunday to clinch the NFC’s final wild card spot. Jordan Love went 27-for-32 with 316 passing yards and two passing touchdowns in the win. Aaron Jones led the way on the ground with 111 rushing yards on 22 carries.
The Packers shook off an underwhelming 3-6 SU and 4-5 ATS start to the season to lock up a playoff spot with a 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS record down the stretch. Jordan Love played great during that eight game run with an 18-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Jordan Love and Aaron Jones are both in top form at the right time. Love has thrown at least two touchdown passes with no interceptions in four straight games. Jones has recorded at least 20 carries and 111 rushing yards in all three games of Green Bay’s current 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS run.
These trends will need to continue on Sunday for the Packers to cover the spread or stay within striking distance of an outright upset. The Cowboys are a well-oiled machine on offense at home, so Green Bay’s best shot at keeping this game competitive is to keep up with a high-scoring performance of its own.
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City’s last 6 games.
- Kansas City are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games.
- Kansas City are 10-2 SU in their last 12 games on the road.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City’s last 5 games when playing on the road against Buffalo.
- Kansas City are 16-3 SU in their last 19 games against an opponent in the American Football Conference conference.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City’s last 6 games against an opponent in the American Football Conference East division.
- Kansas City are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played in January.
Bills News & Notes
The Cowboys rolled to a 38-10 blowout win against the Washington Commanders on Sunday as 13-point road favorites to secure the NFC East division title and the No. 2 seed in the NFC. Dak Prescott went 31-for-36 with 279 passing yards, four touchdown passes and one interception. CeeDee Lamb hauled in 13 catches for 98 receiving yards and two touchdowns.
Dallas is 10-0 SU and 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games as a favorite, winning those games by an average margin of victory of 20.6 points per game. The Cowboys enter the postseason with a 4-12 SU and ATS record in their last 16 playoff games.
The Cowboys have looked flat-out dominant in multiple games this season including Sunday’s blowout over the lowly Commanders. But prior to that win, Dallas went 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS with back-to-back road losses to the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins followed by a controversial win 20-19 win at home over the Detroit Lions.
Getting off to a hot start would go a long way for Dallas in this one. The Cowboys likely have enough talent to win this one at home regardless of the game script, but to keep confidence high and to cover this fairly large spread, an early lead would pave a smoother path.
- Buffalo are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games.
- Buffalo are 6-0 SU in their last 6 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Buffalo’s last 20 games against Kansas City.
- Buffalo are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games at home.
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo’s last 6 games when playing at home against Kansas City.
- Buffalo are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games against an opponent in the AFC.
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of Buffalo’s last 9 games against an opponent in the AFC West division.
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